Unless something unexpected happens, Joe Veleno is going to play for the Detroit Red Wings next season. The 24-year-old restricted free agent center received a qualifying offer from Detroit and filed for arbitration that guarantees him at least a one-year contract extension. The only ways Veleno isn’t staying in Detroit is if another team offer sheets him or if the Red Wings trade him, neither of which seem likely

But what comes after next season? What about the long term?

This question is one that Veleno is all too familiar with, having watched as his 2023 contract negotiations dragged into August last offseason, culminating in a $825,000 prove-it deal from a non-committal Detroit. Veleno followed it up with a career-best season with 28 points, mostly playing in the bottom six while making brief cameos in expanded top six roles. But negotiating his eventual extension this offseason, it would be a shock if Detroit signed him for any term longer than a couple years. Veleno finds his long term role with the Red Wings undefined.

Right now, Veleno is a defensively adequate bottom six center, whose offensive game is growing year over year but isn’t nearly as consistent enough to be considered impactful. Among Detroit forwards who played more than 40 games, Veleno’s 2.57 goals against per 60 at 5-on-5 ranked sixth as calculated by Moneypuck. However, his relative expected goals percentage was -1.7%, meaning that his offensive game was so lacking that it overcame the benefits of his plus-level defense.

Veleno had chances to prove he could score more last season, playing in the top six when Dylan Larkin was out with injuries at times last season. But in those stints, he didn’t prove all that effective. His scoring actually decreased in an elevated role in December, and when he played between Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane during some games in March, Veleno still finished the month without a single point. As an indication of the organization’s trust in Veleno’s scoring ability, by the end of the season the Red Wings were quicker to plug AHL depth player Austin Czarnik into the second line rather than promote Veleno. He remains a player that Detroit can lean on in a defensive bottom six role, but there isn’t much evidence 232 games into Veleno’s career that he’ll ever amount to anything larger. Any plans for Veleno’s future shouldn’t bank on a scoring renaissance.

So where does this defensive version of Veleno fit in the long term version of the Red Wings? Maybe that’s what he can answer with his eventual extension. Projected by AFP Analytics to earn a two-year, $2 million extension, any contract within arm’s reach of that would be relatively cheap for a player from whom Detroit knows what it’s getting.

Much like Veleno’s last prove-it deal, however, there isn’t a whole lot of security in such a short contract. He is more so an accent piece to the current lineup than a core pillar, and that’s especially true with a couple of dynamic young centers in Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson well on their way to making the NHL. Veleno is in the unfortunate spot of being sandwiched between established centers ahead of him and the future behind. In an ideal world for Detroit, its prospects will prove effective in the NHL, which would shift other forwards down the depth chart and probably shift fourth-liner Veleno out of the lineup. Unless he proves he’s invaluable to Detroit in some way, his time with the Red Wings might be limited beyond the terms of his next extension.

But so long as Veleno has a contract, he has an opportunity to prove he should stick around. His defensive play is adequate enough that he should find himself in the lineup most nights, which should be valuable to a Red Wings team that has repeatedly said it wants to defend better next season. If checking and battling is the path to success, then Veleno should be in a position to make a greater impact than he did under last season’s wide-open offensive style. He’ll also have more help from his linemates, with defensively responsible Tyler Motte expected to play alongside him on the fourth line instead of the defensively neglectful Daniel Sprong. This isn’t to say that Veleno will be completely off the hook for depth scoring, but rather there’s a way he can be a positive influence without lighting up the box score. By becoming an even better defender, he can make himself more important to Detroit.

And while any gains at this point would appear to be marginal, Veleno is also young enough that he has time to develop more offensive impact, just like he did with last year’s career year in scoring. Scoring more would mitigate the downside to his game more so than become a core part of it, but this too could make him more valuable to Detroit.

In the end, Veleno’s long term destination is probably with another team, especially if he gets wedged out of a roster spot by an upcoming prospect. For now, he’s a useful defensive role player who shouldn’t cost too much to keep around.

His upcoming extension might not be the most impactful business for Detroit this offseason, but Veleno proved he deserves another chance to carve his niche with the Red Wings. How his current style fits long term isn’t abundantly clear with so many forwards primed to come up to Detroit soon, but Veleno should find another opportunity to prove himself among them.