Winners of four in a row heading into Tuesday’s game against the Dallas Mavericks, the Golden State Warriors are peaking just in time for the play-in tournament. Although a playoff berth is still far from a guarantee, there is a path.
Stephen Curry and company are projected to play the Lakers in their first play-in game, but Golden State should hope to avoid this matchup. A pairing against the Suns (currently seventh-seeded) or Kings (eighth-seeded) would be better for the Warriors, who had not matched up well with the Lakers since last season’s trade deadline when Los Angeles revamped its roster.
Since then, Golden State is 4-8 against the Lakers. However, Golden State’s two wins this season against Los Angeles came when the Lakers were missing either LeBron James or Anthony Davis, who exited a March 16 game against the Warriors due to injury.
The Lakers’ combination of size and length on both ends of the floor makes them a tough matchup for the already undersized Golden State (Warriors head coach Steve Kerr’s strange three- and four-guard lineup obsession also doesn’t help.)
Golden State doesn’t have anyone who can reliably match up against Davis, whose interior presence forces the Warriors to rely on their perimeter scoring, something the Dubs severely lack outside of Curry.
Furthermore, the Lakers have the personnel to wear down Curry. While no specific defender has been particularly effective against Curry in the aggregate, Los Angeles’ versatile arsenal of defenders to throw at the 36-year-old superstar is impressive.
Which brings us to the Kings and Suns.
Short travel may be a factor, but the Warriors have had the Kings number when it matters most dating to last season’s playoffs. With Sacramento losing its second-best perimeter scorer, Malik Monk, for the foreseeable future and starting shooting guard Kevin Huerter done for the season, this leaves the Kings even more vulnerable in a matchup against the Dubs.
The Suns would be a more challenging matchup than Sacramento due to its perimeter scoring, but the Suns’ weaknesses play to the Warriors’ strengths. Phoenix has no true interior threat, allowing Golden State to get away with its patented small-ball lineups and penetrate the paint.
The Suns’ lack of a true interior threat also allows the Warriors to hone in on Kevin Durant defensively without giving up too much size elsewhere on the floor (Durant is shooting 39.3% from the floor against Golden State this season, per StatMuse.)
The Warriors will likely stay in the 10th spot, which will force them to win two road games in the play-in tournament regardless of whom they play.
Strangely enough, this could bode well for the Dubs, who boast a respectable 22-15 record on the road (compared to an 18-19 home record) and have won 14 of their past 17 games away from Chase Center.
The dynasty might be on its last legs, but there is still a glimmer of hope.
