The second overall selection of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft belonged to the Tampa Bay Lightning. This pick ended up being franchise-altering, as they selected star defenseman Victor Hedman. Fast forward to 2024, the blueliner has 1,052 games under his belt at 33 years old. Furthermore, he recently signed a four-year extension at an average annual value of $8 million.
Despite a bounce-back performance offensively in 2023-24 with 76 points in 78 games, there were growing concerns about Hedman’s 5-on-5 and defensive play. While the Lightning added young defensemen like J.J. Moser to the roster, Hedman will still steer the ship for Tampa Bay. With the Lightning’s top defender slowly aging, what are reasonable expectations for him before next season?
Hedman’s Situation Last Season
To contextualize Hedman’s macro-analytics, the Lightning’s back end suffered countless injuries. This unfortunate luck left him to run the blue line all by himself. With top defenders like Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak missing significant time, Hedman was in an unfamiliar environment. Furthermore, he did not have a consistent partner either. However, he found the most success with later bloomer Darren Raddysh. The 27-year-old played a conservative two-way game and defended the rush, which allowed Hedman to maximize his offensive production at 5-on-5.
Macro-Analytic vs Micro-Analytic Performance
With an increased defensive role and unfamiliar deployment, Hedman posted some of the worst macro-analytical totals of his entire career. EvolvingHockey graded his even-strength defensive GAR at minus-5.8, the second lowest of his NHL tenure. Moreover, HockeyViz’s synthetic goals value is plus-1.8, equivalent to a high-end second-pairing defenseman. However, looking at his point totals, one would suggest Hedman remains in the upper echelon of defenders in the NHL. So, what explains the imbalance of elite production and poor marco-analytics?
Believe it or not, Hedman’s micro-analytics bridge the gap between his high point totals and underwhelming macro-stats. Using Corey Sznajder’s workbook from AllThreeZones and my own microstats database for the Lightning I tracked last season, numbers can justify why Hedman still belongs in the top tier of defensemen. Sznajder’s stats show that Hedman was one of the best puck-moving defensemen in the league last season. He placed in the 99th percentile of defensive zone retrievals leading to exits per hour among defensemen. Plus, Hedman ranked in the 99th percentile of zone exits with possession per 60.
My tracking data also shows how efficient Hedman was in zone exit metrics. He ranked first in zone exit passes, carries, and clears amongst Lightning defenders. On top of his high workload and puck touches, Hedman had a controlled exit percentage of 59.05%. In addition, he is also heavily influential in the Lightning’s rush offense. His ability to join the play and his skill on the breakout make him one of the best in transition at 33 years old. He ranked first in zone entry carries and passes out of all Lightning defenders last season. He even posted an impressive controlled entry percentage of 48.57% for a blue liner. While his marco-results were not on par with his track record, his microstats were excellent.
Expected Role and Performance This Season
With a revamped defensive core in Tampa Bay, we will see a shift in Hedman’s role on the team this season. Plus, the Lightning have a captain vacancy for the first time in a decade. The Swedish blueliner seems like the perfect candidate to lead this new era of Lightning hockey this season. Adding defensive specialists like Ryan McDonagh and Moser will take a heavy workload off of Hedman’s shoulders. Whether he is paired with Raddysh or Moser, having a solid rush defender by his side will allow him to continue his best play offensively on the rush.
While the dynamic of the Lightning power play will change without Steven Stamkos, Hedman has no competition for the top unit since Sergachev joined the Utah Hockey Club. After one of the worst seasons in his career in 2022-23, the 33-year-old rebounded with elite offensive production and microstats. Heading into this season, Julien BriseBois added vital pieces to shelter Hedman from too many minutes against top-tier competition, which will help him remain effective at both ends of the ice. We can reasonably expect Hedman to record another season within the 70-point range, possibly with improved macro-analytics and a “C” on his jersey.
