The New England Patriots should definitely take a quarterback this spring, but there are no guarantees they will do that with the No. 3 overall. They already have a proven stop-gap quarterback they know well in Jacoby Brissett, so there is no rush to run a rookie out there in 2024. This year’s Patriots may be awful, but the right trade or two during the 2024 NFL Draft might set them up well.
New England can trade down just outside of the top 10 to reach on someone like Bo Nix out of Oregon or Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington. They can also trade back up inside the top five with additional compensation they picked up. It wouldn’t shock me if they picked someone like Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy at No. 4 or No. 5 in a deal with the Arizona Cardinals or Los Angeles Chargers.
However, the Patriots are looking more and more like a team that could be willing to trade down. Three teams that could be looking to move up include the Minnesota Vikings picking at No. 11, the Las Vegas Raiders picking at No. 13 and the Denver Broncos picking at No. 12. Of the three, Minnesota is by far and away the most likely to take a quarterback, while the Raiders are the least.
Let’s take a look at what a potential trade package could look like for all three teams moving up.
Here is what it might take for the Vikings to move up to No. 3 in a deal with the Patriots.
Minnesota Vikings LogoMinnesota Vikings
Receive
2024 first-round pick (No. 3 overall)
2024 third-round pick (No. 68 overall)
New England Patriots LogoNew England Patriots
Receive
2024 first-round pick (No. 11 overall)
2025 first-round pick
2025 seventh-round pick (from Pittsburgh)
Even though the Vikings are the most desperate of the three teams for a rookie quarterback, as well as playing in the opposite conference of the Patriots, it wasn’t easy to make the money work in a trade. New England is obviously getting every team’s first-round pick this year and next in a trade involving the No. 3 overall pick. However, the Vikings’ deal is not as smooth as the other two are.
They would be off by half a million dollars if the Vikings asked for the Patriots’ No. 137 overall pick. That is too much of a difference to make a deal work. Instead, the Vikings get the Patriots’ third-round pick at No. 68 overall, but would have to give up their seventh-round pick next year that belonged to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Vikings can get a deal done, but they will need a better trade partner.
The Vikings are better served dealing with Washington, Arizona and Los Angeles over New England.
Here is what it might take for the Raiders to move up to No. 3 in a deal with the Patriots.
Las Vegas Raiders LogoLas Vegas Raiders
Receive
2024 first-round pick (No. 3 overall)
2024 fifth-round pick (No. 137 overall)
New England Patriots LogoNew England Patriots
Receive
2024 first-round pick (No. 13 overall)
2025 first-round pick
As I said before, this is a much smoother deal. New England gets the Raiders’ first-round pick this year at No. 13 overall, as well as the Silver and Black’s first-round pick in 2025. Las Vegas ends up with the No. 3 overall pick, as well as the No. 137 overall pick in the fifth round this year to make the money work. Las Vegas doesn’t need to do this trade, as the Raiders already have two quarterbacks.
However, the value makes a ton of sense. Besides, the Raiders feel more likely to be down again in 2025 than even the rebuilding Vikings. Thus, the Patriots may value the Raiders’ future first-round pick in 2025 more so than the Vikings’. The Raiders are probably better served waiting until next year to draft a quarterback, but they don’t have to give up an arm and a leg to move up 10 spots to get one.
It may pain Antonio Piece to go with Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell this year, but deal with it.
And here is what it might take for the Broncos to move up to No. 3 in a deal with the Patriots.
Denver Broncos LogoDenver Broncos
Receive
2024 first-round pick (No. 3 overall)
2024 fifth-round pick (No. 137 overall)
New England Patriots LogoNew England Patriots
Receive
2024 first-round pick (No. 12 overall)
2025 first-round pick
The Broncos would be giving up nearly the same compensation as the Raiders would in a deal for No. 3. They would send the Patriots their first-round pick this year at No. 12, as well as their first-round pick next year in 2025 for the rights to the No. 3 overall pick. As with the Raiders, the No. 137 pick in the fifth round this year would go to the Broncos to even out the money. This is their best trade partner.
Denver is desperate, as the Bronco cannot roll with Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci throughout the duration of 2024. The No. 12 pick is slightly better than the Raiders’ No. 13 overall pick. More importantly, Denver is going to be an abject disaster this season, as the Broncos were bad before eating all of that dead money from the Russell Wilson contract. Their first-round pick could be No. 1…
Shockingly, the Broncos are the far better trade partner for the Patriots over the Vikings or Raiders.