New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara used to be among the best players in the league at his position. Selected in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft, the Tennessee product quickly established himself as one of the league’s most dangerous dual threats by recording 1,554 all-purpose yards as a rookie. He quickly proved that wasn’t a one-year fluke, as the running back made five consecutive Pro Bowl appearances from 2017 to 2021.

However, time comes for us all, as a recent survey by ESPN notes that league executives do not believe that Alvin Kamara is a top-10 running back. To determine these rankings, “ESPN surveyed league executives, coaches, and scouts to help us rank the top 10 players at 11 different positions.” While Kamara received some votes, the five-time Pro Bowler could not earn a spot on the consensus top-10 list.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (honorable mention): Kamara has been a fixture in the top 10, ranking as high as No. 2 in 2021, but Kamara’s production has been less efficient in recent seasons. He has averaged 3.87 yards per carry since 2021, which is good enough for 830 yards per season. “He might have hit a wall a little bit,” an NFL running backs coach said. “He’s still a great all-purpose back and can run all the different schemes, has burst and contact. But the production hasn’t been there. Though I think [offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s] system will be really good for him.”

ESPN Survey: Alvin Kamara Is Not A Top-10 Running Back

Nobody thinks that the present-day version of Alvin Kamara is as dangerous as a running back like Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey. The fact is that Kamara has slowed down a bit, but does that mean he no longer deserves a spot in the top 10? Last year, the running back ranked 33rd in total rushing yards and his 3.87 yards per attempt left a lot to be desired, but those aren’t the best stats for evaluating talent. Running back production is largely a product of their environment, and New Orleans’ below-average offensive line and bland scheme put a limit on how good Kamara could be.

Unfortunately, the advanced metrics paint a similar picture. Alvin Kamara finished with a 76.1 PFF grade, the 26th-best mark out of 59 eligible running backs, while his 3.38 yards created per touch and 14.9% juke rate ranked 27th and 46th, respectively. Kamara is still a starting-caliber back, but the metrics suggest the league’s decision to leave him off the top 10 list was justified.

What Comes Next

Alvin Kamara is slowing down, and the running back is now entering his age-29 season. Historically speaking, running back production tends to drop off around the age-27 season, so the Saints are on borrowed time. Perhaps the five-time Pro Bowler can still handle a high workload in 2024, but New Orleans must start thinking about what comes next.

The team selected running back Kendre Miller in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. While it’s too early to know if he has what it takes to be Kamara’s successor, the early returns aren’t promising. Miller finished his inaugural season with just 156 yards and one touchdown on 41 carries, showing a worrisome inability to beat out Kamara and free agent signee Jamaal Williams for touches. Perhaps he can earn a larger role in Year 2, but if he can’t, the Saints will probably draft a running back early in 2025.