It has been a rather steep fall from grace in recent years for unrestricted free-agent winger Kailer Yamamoto.  Thought of as a key piece of Edmonton’s core just a few years ago, he now finds himself looking for a new deal more than a month into free agency.

Yamamoto first made a big impact late in the 2019-20 season, turning a midseason recall into a permanent stay with 26 points in 27 games, suggesting that he could be an important top-six piece for the Oilers in the process.  After his output dropped the following season, Yamamoto rebounded well in 2021-22, notching 20 goals and 21 assists in 81 contests while adding seven points in 14 playoff contests.

Unable to afford a long-term agreement, the two sides worked out a two-year, $6.2M deal, effectively a second bridge contract, which was a reasonable move for both sides.  But it didn’t work out as planned.  His production dipped to 25 points in 58 games, resulting in Edmonton moving him to Detroit in a cap-dumping move before free agency last summer.

But as it turns out, the Red Wings didn’t want him; they took him on to get the negotiating rights to Klim Kostin as part of that swap.  They weren’t able to flip Yamamoto, so they ultimately bought him out, paying only one-third of the deal to do so since he was only 24 at the time.

Yamamoto quickly caught on with Seattle, inking a one-year, $1.5M deal, a fair price tag for a player looking to rebuild some value.  But that didn’t happen.  He struggled offensively with the Kraken, collecting just eight goals and eight assists in 59 games.  Rather than qualify him at $1.5M and give him arbitration eligibility (where his prior production with Edmonton) would have positioned him for a fair-sized raise, Seattle elected to non-tender him, and clearly, his second trip through unrestricted free agency hasn’t gone as well as he was hoping for.

Stats

2023-24: 59 GP, 8 G, 8 A, 16 PTS, -9, 18 PIMS, 11:59 ATOI, 53.3 CF%
Career: 303 GP, 58 G, 76 A, 134 PTS, +20, 124 PIMS, 15:33 ATOI, 51.5 CF%

Potential suitors

There are a couple of types of potential fits for the 25-year-old.  Teams that are looking for offensive depth in their bottom six might have him on their list of options.  Meanwhile, rebuilding teams looking for someone who might be able to help for the medium term (he still is controllable through arbitration through 2025-26) could be inclined to give him a shot.

In the East, Montreal has at least a short-term opening up front with the recent injury to Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Yamamoto would give them a bit of offensive punch and speed in a bottom-six group that is veteran-heavy.  The fact that he had success playing with Leon Draisaitl could appeal to a team like Pittsburgh who has been looking for consistent wingers to play with Sidney Crosby.  They’ve tried several players in that role with varying degrees of success; perhaps Yamamoto could be worth a look there.  Ottawa, meanwhile, has lost some winger depth between trades dating back to last season and free agency and could benefit from another offensive option to shore up their depth.

Out West, Colorado had a lot of success on a low-cost one-year deal for Jonathan Drouin last summer.  Yamamoto fits that type of bounce-back profile that could be a mutual fit.  He’d have to take a fair-sized pay cut to make it work, however, with Valeri Nichushkin expected back early in the season, putting his cap hit back on their books.  If Yamamoto is willing to take a low-cost contract, Dallas would also be a fit as they’ve had success integrating offensive players in their bottom six.  With Evgenii Dadonov a year out from free agency, Yamamoto could plausibly slide into that spot in 2025-26, potentially making him a multiyear fit.  Winnipeg was a mid-pack team offensively last year and hasn’t added much on that front, so he could be a fit there depending on how long (and expensive) Cole Perfetti’s next contract winds up being.

Projected contract

Being a late non-tender, Yamamoto wasn’t eligible to land on our top-50 UFA list but might have made it toward the back end had he been eligible.  But players who make it to this point unsigned generally don’t fare well in terms of their next contract.  Most of the best fits are teams that will be looking for a bargain, so if he’s looking to go to a playoff-bound team, he’s likely going to have to come in at $1M or lower.  If a lower-end team wants to take a flyer on him, the price tag could land a bit above that, but at this point, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to match the $1.5M he made last season.