Predicting the next wave of NFL quarterbacks who will break the bank

With Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence’s record-setting five-year, $275 million contract extension, the clock started on a handful of other signal-callers primed to cash in on the NFL’s booming quarterback market over the next few seasons.Predicting the next wave of NFL QBs who will break the bank

Here’s a look at four passers who could be next in line to potentially top Lawrence’s lucrative contract.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Fresh off his breakout 2023 season, Love won’t be participating in any on-field activities at Packers training camp until he has signed a new contract. Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has been nothing but optimistic that deal will be done relatively soon, which likely signals the two sides are on the one-yard line in their negotiations.

It took Love a bit to settle into a groove in his first full season as a starter this past fall, but once he did toward midseason, he really came into his own. Love ended the year with 4,159 yards passing and 32 touchdowns and truly flourished over his final eight regular-season games, throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception and leading the Packers to wins in six of those games while helping the team sneak into the playoffs.

Spotrac projects Love’s market value at $53M per season, which feels a little too low. It’s likely when Love inks his new deal in the coming days or weeks, he’ll surpass Lawrence and Cincinnati Bengals QB Burrow as the highest-paid signal-caller in the NFL.

PROJECTION: Five years, $282.5M ($56.5M per year)

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Spotrac projects Prescott’s market value at $53.1M per season, which again, seems a little low relative to what many analysts believe he could get on the open market.

Prescott, who finished runner-up to Lamar Jackson in MVP voting last season, had a career year with Mike McCarthy calling Dallas’ offensive plays. The 30-year-old threw for a career-best 4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 105.9 passer rating, also the best of his career.

This offseason, the Cowboys replaced 1,000-yard rusher Tony Pollard with soon-to-be 30-year-old Ezekiel Elliott, which likely means Prescott will be throwing quite a bit more than he did during the past campaign. If Prescott has another career year, it’s not out of the question that he could command the same $55M-per-year salary as his star contemporaries with the Bengals and Jaguars.

PROJECTION: Four years, $220M ($55M per year) 

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

If Purdy has another season equal to or better than last year, there’s no question he could reset the QB market next offseason when eligible to sign a new deal. As a 23-year-old first-time starter this past season, Purdy threw for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns while leading the 49ers to a 12-5 record and Super Bowl appearance.

In the process, he became just the third quarterback in 49ers history to crack the 4,000-yard passing milestone and he is also now the franchise record-holder for single-season passing yards. Purdy also finished the season fourth all-time in single-season touchdowns by a 49ers quarterback.

Spotrac projects Purdy’s market value at $50.9M per season, which seems way under value if Purdy continues on his current trajectory. Another 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown season (especially if it culminates in a Super Bowl championship) should earn Purdy a new record deal.

PROJECTION: Five years, $285M ($57M per year)

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud is perhaps the most difficult to project of this group given he’s only one year into his NFL career. If his rookie season is any indication of what’s to come, though, Stroud will most likely be the NFL’s first $60M-per-year QB when it comes time to put pen to paper.

The 22-year-old was just 267 yards away from breaking Andrew Luck’s rookie record for passing yards and nine touchdowns away from breaking Justin Herbert’s rookie record for touchdown passes.

Heading into Year 2, Stroud has one of the best cast of weapons of any QB in the league with running back Joe Mixon, receivers Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell plus tight end Dalton Schultz. When he’s eligible to sign an extension in 2026, Stroud’s new contract should stand as the new gold standard for QBs.

PROJECTION: Five years, $300M ($60M per year)

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