Philip Broberg was selected eighth overall by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2019 NHL Draft. Five years later, the 23-year-old defenseman is yet to establish himself as a lineup regular, although this season is expected to be different. After a strong playoff performance that saw the Örebro, Sweden native score two goals and an assist in 10 games, fans have set pretty high expectations for him this season. While he is young and is likely to have a strong campaign, fans should not let the short sample size overrule his previous performances.
Broberg’s Career So Far
Broberg is a left-handed defenseman who has split the past three seasons with the Bakersfield Condors of the American Hockey League (AHL) and the Oilers. In the AHL, he has refined his game with elusive skating, keen vision, and soft hands. While there are still concerns with his defensive positioning, consistency, and puck management, he has matured enough to where he is now deserving of a permanent NHL role.
Broberg’s path to earning a full-time spot in the Oilers lineup will not be easy. Currently, the team has Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, and Brett Kulak occupying the left side of the defense. While Broberg did play the majority of the 2024 playoffs on his offhand, Evan Bouchard and Cody Ceci are regulars on the right side, making the third spot on the right side a battle between Broberg, Josh Brown, and Troy Stecher.
During the regular season in the NHL and AHL, Broberg spent most of his time on the left side and finished with a 52.7 expected goals percentage (xG%), according to MoneyPuck. While he played just 12 NHL games, this metric is calculated on efficiency. He finished fourth in this category among Oilers’ defensemen, notably ahead of Nurse (51.2 xG%) and Ceci (48.2 xG%).
In the playoffs, Broberg spent the majority of his time on the right side. He finished with a 43.4 xG%. As well, his best defensive pairing was alongside Ceci, with both playing their natural position. When together, the two had a 54.5 xG%. This was Ceci’s best defensive pairing of the playoffs, beating out his time spent alongside Nurse (34.8 xG%) and Kulak (37.3 xG%).
Interestingly, Ceci and Broberg never played together during the 2023-24 season. In 18 minutes together during the 2022-23 season, the two had a 50.0 xG%. In 88 minutes together during the 2021-22 season, the two had a 48.2 xG%.
Takeaway From the Data
The data precisely reflects Broberg’s game. He plays his best on the left side, even though his seemingly “strong” playoff performance during the 2024 playoffs would indicate otherwise.
In the playoffs, Broberg led all skaters in goals percentage (G%) with 83.3%. This is a number that is incredibly far from sustainable, not just because his 43.4 xG% proves he got a bit lucky with the timing of goals, but also because the 2023-24 regular season leader in xG% was Quinton Byfield at 71.3. An 83.3 G% is unheard of and over an 82-game season it will regress.
Broberg is a very young, promising defenseman, but his 2024 playoff performance is far from replicable. Unfortunately for the Oilers, they are likely going to try to replicate his performance by playing him on the right side of the third pairing, likely alongside Kulak. If this is the case, Broberg will need to adapt fast or another disappointing season is inevitable.
However, if the Oilers want to best prepare Broberg for a breakout season, they will allow him to spend time alongside Ceci in their natural positions. This move would put Broberg alongside the partner he has the most positive history with, helping the team while also prioritizing his development.
What Are Broberg’s Expectations?
With all of that said, what are Broberg’s expectations? On social media, many pundits believe he could score north of 10 goals and 40 points. Frankly, that is highly improbable. Not only does he still need to establish himself as a lineup regular, but he would need to earn time on the powerplay to reach this goal total.
Broberg’s ultimate point totals will come down to how he is utilized. If he begins the season alongside Ceci, there should be confidence he could score four to eight goals and 25 to 30 points, assuming he plays 65 to 75 games. He is likely to progress over the course of the season, earning more ice time as injuries and trades occur. With this, he could see some time on the second unit of the powerplay.
If Broberg is forced to play the right side on the third defensive pair, he will likely struggle. Not only will his point production be a concern, but his reliability in the NHL will be, too. As a 23-year-old, he needs to get comfortable in the NHL, and the last way to do this would be by playing him on the right side. While I am hopeful this scenario does not come to fruition, if it does, Broberg is in serious threat of losing his NHL role.
In the end, Broberg is likely to earn a role on the left side. Head coach Kris Knoblauch saw his strong play last season and knows it is now or never, so he will give Broberg every opportunity to succeed early on. As a result, he is likely to hit the four to eight goal and 25 to 30-point projection. As well, strong play early in the season from Broberg could impress Knoblauch to give him powerplay time, potentially raising that point total to the mid-30s.
There is still lots of time left in the offseason for the Oilers to make another move, so Broberg’s projection is subject to change. However, given the team’s current circumstances, an Evan Bouchard-esc breakout is highly improbable this season given his resume and likely role in the lineup. However, this does not mean he is a bad defenseman as he remains on track to develop into a future top-four defenseman.
