Evaluating player performance can be approached in several ways, each offering a unique perspective. The “eyeball test” has traditionally been the go-to method, where observers gauge a player’s effectiveness based on their live performance. Standard statistics such as goals, assists and plus-minus ratings provide a more concrete measure of a player’s contributions.
In recent years, advanced analytics have emerged as a game-changer, offering a deeper dive into performance metrics and team dynamics. While not everyone might appreciate the intricacies of “advanced” data, these insights are increasingly influential in shaping team strategies and player evaluations. Each method—traditional observation, basic statistics, and sophisticated analytics—contributes to the broader conversation among fans, enriching our understanding of the game and its players.
For those who enjoy The Athletic, as I do, in statistical analysis, Dom Luszczyszyn stands out for his deep dives into analytics and innovative approaches to evaluating the game. While his data-driven insights can sometimes clash with traditionalists who favour the eyeball test, his unique insights offer a helpful lens through which to assess player contracts and team dynamics.
In this edition of “News & Rumors,” I’ll explore Luszczyszyn’s analytical take on the Toronto Maple Leafs’ roster. His work highlights some intriguing findings, notably that Auston Matthews has the team’s best-value contract despite his considerable salary. Conversely, in a surprising twist, Luszczyszyn identifies William Nylander’s contract as one of the least favourable on the roster.
Third, Luszczyszyn gave Calle Jarnkrok a C+ grade for his contract value and ranks the Maple Leafs as the eighth-best organization for signing contracts with good value. That’s a surprise for those who believe that two recent general managers—Kyle Dubas and Brad Treliving—are fast and loose with the team’s finances.
Item 1: The Maple Leafs Best Contract Is Auston Matthews
According to Luszczyszyn, Matthews is the Maple Leafs’ best contract. He offers immense value as an annual MVP contender and one of the best players in the world. His contract, which takes up 15 percent of the cap, is a bargain, considering he could command closer to a league-max salary. Matthews consistently performs at a high level, making his deal highly favourable (from “NHL contract efficiency rankings, 2024: Which teams spend their money most wisely?” The Athletic, 25/07/2024).
In addition to Matthews, Luszczyszyn argues that the team’s goalies are the best buys for contract value. He notes that the team signing Anthony Stolarz at $2.5 million per year was a high-upside move. He was the best value bet in free agency, and if he performs to his potential, he could provide significant returns.
Joseph Woll’s three-year contract extension at $3.66 million yearly is another strategic bet. If Woll lives up to the franchise’s expectations and becomes the goalie of the future, this contract could turn out to be a massive bargain. Despite the risks associated with his small sample size and injury history, the potential upside makes this deal worth it.
Item 2: Is William Nylander the Maple Leafs’ Worst Contract?
Luszczyszyn also notes that William Nylander’s contract is problematic due to the timing of its signing. Initially valued as an $8.5 million player, his peak value reached $11.5 million before settling at $10 million. The Maple Leafs signed him at his peak, which now proves challenging for him to live up to. While Nylander can perform at an $11.5 million level or higher, there is skepticism about his consistency. This contract remains risky without a lengthy resume of performing at that peak.
The Maple Leafs’ contracts reflect a mix of high-value deals and more challenging ones, like any NHL team. The strategic moves in goaltending, particularly with Stolarz and Woll, highlight the team’s effort to find value and potential with long-term gains. Meanwhile, managing the high expectations and costs associated with top players like Nylander will be crucial for maintaining a balanced and competitive roster.
Item 3: Is Calle Jarnkrok a Good Value on His Contract?
Calle Jarnkrok’s $2.1 million salary through the 2025-26 season could be massive value for the Maple Leafs, provided he can rebound from an injury-plagued 2023-24 season. Last year, Jarnkrok was hindered by recurring hand injuries that led to multiple stints on injured reserve and a 15-game goal drought. Despite these setbacks, his contract, which offers him a relatively low cap hit, was once considered a bargain. That was especially true when he scored 20 goals two seasons ago.
Jarnkrok’s versatility is a major asset. He can effectively play in the top and bottom six without missing a beat. His defensive reliability and knack for scoring from the right faceoff circle further enhance his value. If Jarnkrok stays healthy and returns to form, his current contract could be considered a steal. With an entire offseason to recover, could he be poised for a strong comeback? If so, his contract is a significant bargain for the Maple Leafs.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
As the Maple Leafs head into a new season, several intriguing narratives are set to unfold. The lingering uncertainty surrounding Mitch Marner’s future is notably subdued this offseason, offering a brief respite from the usual contract drama. However, this quiet period might be the calm before a storm.
That said, could there be a significant shift in the Maple Leafs roster if the potential rise of a young star looms large? With Easton Cowan and other emerging prospects making strides, there’s a real chance one of these players could step up to fill Marner’s skates. If that happens, suddenly, the worm turns.
Right now, it would seem that Marner holds all the cards. However, if a fresh talent makes an unexpected impact, even more than Bobby McMann’s surprise emergence last season, it adds an exciting dimension to the year ahead. If none of the prospects fully emerge, it could complicate contract negotiations and reshape team dynamics.
Regardless of how it plays out, the season promises to be exciting. Maple Leafs fans will undoubtedly hope for a breakthrough from a few younger players because their success could be pivotal in determining the team’s trajectory and future decisions.
