The Toronto Maple Leafs face a pivotal decision regarding Mitch Marner as they try to figure out their salary cap challenges and roster construction after this season. While Marner is undoubtedly a creative and talented player, his impending free agency carries significant baggage.
The most obvious is the large contract he’ll want to sign. He’ll want money and lots of it. Second, his agent does and often says anything to reach that high financial goal. This has soured Leafs Nation on the creative and talented young hometown player.
When you consider this, I’d argue that allowing him to walk to free agency is the best course of action for the team.
Easton Cowan’s Emergence Could Make Things Easier for the Maple Leafs
One intriguing possibility for the Maple Leafs this season is the emergence of Easton Cowan. The young forward has outperformed expectations and demonstrated the potential to become a strong – if not a star – player. If Cowan continues to develop and impress, he could be a viable replacement for Marner in the top six.
This would be the best-case scenario for several reasons. It would instantly soothe the salary cap issues. If the team wanted to re-sign Marner, it would offer them some leverage. But, in my thinking, Marner could then walk without much angst and, by doing so, get a fresh start without the ongoing drama associated with his contract negotiations.
Marner’s negotiations have often been contentious, turning some (many or most – pick one) Toronto fans against him. While he is a great player, the drama accompanying him is distracting. In contrast, a promising talent like Cowan, hungry and eager to prove himself, might bring a new dynamic to the lineup.
Letting Marner Walk Reshapes the Maple Leafs Salary Cap
Furthermore, allowing Marner to walk in free agency would free up significant cap space. The team could then focus on building a more balanced and less top-heavy structure, which has hindered past playoff runs. Many subscribe to the theory that allowing a player to walk gets the team nothing in return, but that isn’t correct. The team would immediately see a few great returns if he became a free agent.
First, the Maple Leafs are projected to have around $30.3 million in cap space in 2025, assuming a $92 million cap ceiling and with 14 players signed. Allowing Marner to leave would give the team more flexibility to reshape the roster (from “Seven NHL teams that will shed bad contracts and gain major salary-cap relief in 2025,” Harman Dayal, The Athletic, 31/07/2024).
Second, the Maple Leafs’ top-heavy cap structure would be eased. While Marner’s creativity and playmaking abilities are elite, the Maple Leafs have not won with him in their postseason lineup. They have emerging talents on the team, like Matthew Knies, who has shown he can step up and fill some of the void. Or, using some freed-up cap space, Toronto could sign or trade for multiple players to diversify their scoring options and avoid relying too heavily on a few star players.
Third, the Maple Leafs could rebuild or reshape their forward corps. The freed-up cap space would allow the team to target multiple free agents or trade options. This could include signing a top-six center or exploring trade possibilities to acquire a valuable piece without sacrificing too many assets.
The Bottom Line if Marner Walks to Free Agency
While losing Marner would undoubtedly be a significant blow to the Maple Leafs’ top six, the 2025 offseason presents a unique opportunity for the team to address its salary-cap issues, invest in young talent, and build a team better equipped for postseason success.
If Marner walks, the bottom line isn’t as bleak as many might think. The Maple Leafs would lose Marner as a player; however, the newfound flexibility would allow the team to reshape its roster, enhance overall depth, and improve postseason performance through strategic investments and the development of young talent.
