Following a second straight first round exit, the Tampa Bay Lightning made some major shake-ups to their roster. After re-acquiring Ryan McDonagh from the Nashville Predators, then sending Mikhail Sergachev to Utah, the Lightning made their biggest moves up front in free agency.
Tampa Bay signed Jake Guentzel to a seven-year contract, after acquiring him from the Carolina Hurricanes. However, July 1 also marked the end of an era for the Lightning, as they let captain Steven Stamkos walk away as a free agent.
Below, we take a look at the highlights of the Lightning’s free agency, and examine how it all worked out.
Jake Guentzel was a terrific add
Obviously, the biggest addition for the Lightning was Guentzel. With the Hurricanes unable to reach an agreement with the forward, Tampa Bay sent a third-round pick to the Hurricanes, in exchange for Guentzel’s signing rights. It ultimately paid off, as the Lightning signed him to a seven-year contract, carrying a $9 million cap hit.
Guentzel was arguably the top free agent on the market. A Stanley Cup Champion in Pittsburgh, the winger has consistently been able to post point-per-game numbers, and is poised to be a huge contributor at the top of the Lightning’s forward group. Turning 30 years old in October, Guentzel should still have a number of productive years left.
The deal also came in possibly a little lower than projected, likely as a result of the lack of state tax. I had projected that a seven-year deal for Guentzel could be as high as $9.5 million per year.
Guentzel is a huge addition. The winger gives them options to spread out their scoring across two lines, or load up with an explosive Guentzel-Point-Kucherov top line. At the same time though, the signing was also one of the key reasons the Lightning didn’t have cap space available to re-sign the player below.
The Lightning without Steven Stamkos will take some getting used to
While Guentzel was added in free agency, the Lightning were forced to part ways with Steven Stamkos.
Selected first-overall by the Lightning in 2008, Stamkos has been a franchise cornerstone in Tampa Bay. The forward spent 16 seasons with the Lightning, serving as captain for 11 of those years. In that time, he was part of the back-to-back Stanley Cup wins, and captured two Rocket Richard Trophies. In 1082 career games with the Lightning, Stamkos scored 555 goals and 1137 points.
Obviously, Stamkos is now 34 years old, so a decline is coming at some point. While he’s been healthy for a number of years as well, the forward also had fairly significant injury trouble at times throughout his career. Still though, Stamkos has remained a key producer for the Lightning in recent years. This past season, he reached 40 goals and 81 points in 79 games.
His four-year deal with the Nashville Predators at an $8 million cap hit also carries fair value. I had projected a four-year deal for Stamkos to come in at a $7.75M cap hit.
Plus, there’s a chance Stamkos would have been willing to take less to stay with the Lightning. He was reportedly offered an eight-year deal at a $3 million cap hit, but that was likely a non-starter from the get-go. A remotely fair offer would have certainly meant Stamkos remained in Tampa Bay.
As a result, swapping Guentzel for Stamkos may not have significant short-term implications. In the next year or two, you can bet the players will likely end up posting fairly similar numbers. Where the deal could benefit the Lightning is in a couple years down the road, where a 33 year-old Guentzel is likely to be more productive than a 37-year-old Stamkos.
Other Moves
The moves on the blue line were also fairly substantial, even if they didn’t all necessarily come in free agency. Ryan McDonagh was brought back, before the Lightning sent Mikhail Sergachev to Utah, for a package which also included J.J. Moser. The Lightning subsequently signed Moser to a two-year contract, at a $3.38M cap hit.
It’s a set of moves that could benefit the Lightning short-term, but likely won’t be best long-term. McDonagh and Moser together could be more beneficial to the team’s blue line over the next few years, but Sergachev is going to have the biggest long-term impact. McDonagh is 35 years old, and likely only has a couple good years left. As he ages out, Sergachev is going to have a bigger long-term impact than Moser.
The team also made some smaller decisions in free agency. One of the more substantial losses up front was Anthony Duclair, who signed with the New York Islanders. Duclair was a great fit upon being added at the trade deadline, and the Lightning didn’t necessarily find a direct replacement for the winger.
Lightning lost a few important depth pieces
The Lightning also parted with Tyler Motte, Calvin de Haan, Matt Dumba and Alex Barré-Boulet. Meanwhile, they added Zemgus Girgensons, Jesse Ylonen and Cam Atkinson, among other minor signings.
That said, the team also notably signed Victor Hedman to a four-year extension, at an $8 million cap hit. Hedman will be 35 years old in the first-year of the contract, which kicks in for the 2025-26 season.
Obviously, getting Hedman locked up is key. It doesn’t have implications on the upcoming season, but as the team’s No. 1 defenseman, Hedman will be key in keeping the Lightning competitive.
The team also extended Emil Lilleberg on a two-year contract, at $800,000 per year. He’ll be just 24 years old when the deal kicks in, and it’s a no-risk move.
Overall, the Lightning came away looking decent with their major moves this summer. The Guentzel for Stamkos swap can help extend the team’s window, though the team did lose Duclair as well. The extension for Moser is decent, though the swaps within the defense group are more likely to help short-term than long-term. The Hedman extension was also a good piece of business to get done in advance.
Despite all the moves though, the Lightning likely only look marginally better heading into next season. It remains to be seen as to whether it will all be enough to bring them back to contender status.
FINAL GRADE: B+
