Widely regarded as one the best goalies in the NHL, Andrei Vasilevskiy had the worst statistical season of his career last season. In September, the 29-year-old had surgery to repair a herniated lumbar disc in his back, according to Chris Bengel at CBS Sports, and he didn’t return until Nov. 24 against the Carolina Hurricanes, when he recorded 22 saves on 24 shots.
However, the rest of the season didn’t go as smoothly. Given his injury and late start to the season, Vasilevskiy was far from peak performance. How do his numbers from last season stack up compared to the rest of his career? Why must Vasilevskiy bounce back for the Tampa Bay Lightning to have a successful 2024-25 season?
Analyzing Vasilevskiy’s 2023-24 Season
Vasilevskiy posted multiple career lows at 5-on-5 last season. His .904 save percentage (SV%) at 5v5 ranked last in his ten-year tenure in the NHL. It was the first time he had a save percentage below .920 at 5-on-5. Furthermore, he had the second lowest expected Fenwick save percentage (xFSv%) of his career at 93.65% (the save parentage that a goalie should have with a league-average performance given the quality of chances faced, via Blueshirts Breakaway). At his best, Vasilevskiy has an expected Fenwick save percentage of roughly 95%.
Vasilevskiy also had the second-worst performance in Evolving Hockey’s goals saved above expected (GSAx) model (the golden stat for goaltenders). He posted a -7.64 goals saved above expected last season, his lowest total in this metric since he was 22 years old in 2016-17. Coming off the three best seasons of his career in this category, Vasilevskiy averaged over 13 goals saved above expected from 2021-23. That 20-goal gap is very disappointing for an elite goaltender.
Contextualizing Vasilevskiy’s Career-Low Performance
While Vasilevskiy’s numbers dipped last season, so did the Lightning’s team defense. Since he joined the team in 2014-15, the Lightning recorded one of their worst defensive seasons of the last decade, surrendering 2.87 goals against per 60 (GA/60) at 5-on-5. For context, their next highest rate was 2.46 goals against per 60 in 2022-23. The Lightning did not allow a crazy amount of shots against in terms of quantity, but the team allowed Vasilevskiy to face too many high-danger, quality shots. Tampa Bay’s 2.59 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) was the second-worst rate of the last decade.
Given that Vasilevskiy missed training camp and the Lightning had a poor defensive performance, there is a reason for his career-worst performance in 2023-24. He will turn 30 at the end of July, so he is getting up there, but Vasilevskiy still has multiple good seasons left in him, and by replacing Steven Stamkos with Jake Guentzel, the team has extended their Cup window in the short term.
Vasilevskiy is Due for Improvement Next Season
The Lightning made plenty of changes this off-season to address their back-to-back first-round exits. On the offensive side, Guetnzel will help the Lightning drive play and maintain possession at 5-on-5. In addition, the team brought back one of their defensive studs from the Stanley Cup team, Ryan McDonagh. Following a career-worst season from Erik Cernak, the Lightning hope his old defense partner will rejuvenate his career.
Management also traded offensive-minded defender Mikhail Sergachev for one who played tough minutes against elite competition last season in J.J. Moser. The 24-year-old is responsible and can defend the rush, allowing players like Victor Hedman to get involved offensively. In short, these moves will improve the Lightning’s team defense and 5-on-5 play and help Vasilevskiy to a bounce-back season.
