Tampa Bay Lightning forward Anthony Cirelli was heavily involved in trade rumors leading up to free agency. After re-acquiring Ryan McDonagh from the Nashville Predators, the Lightning needed cap space to re-sign their captain, Steven Stamkos, and Cirelli’s name was first on the list. After all, an annual average value of $6.25 million for a 45-point player is a bit pricey. However, Cirelli’s impact defensively makes the contract worth every penny, and general manager Julien BriseBois decided to hold on to the 26-year-old.
Off-Puck/Forecheck Specialist: Explaining Cirelli’s Elite Defense
Cirelli is widely known for his elite defensive play. The center finished tied-23rd in voting for the Frank J. Selke Trophy, awarded to the NHL forward with the best defensive skill. While fans acknowledge Cirelli is a defensive monster, nobody understands why he continues to shut down top forward lines. Corey Sznajder’s microstats from All Three Zones help answer why Cirelli is a first-class defensive forward.
Sznajder wrote an article last summer called The Microstat Player Compass, which divides players into different archetypes based on their microstats. In other words, Sznajder concluded that microstats go beyond zone entries and zone exits, and players with scattered microstat profiles can be valuable outside of his work. Cirelli’s microstat profile explains why he is elite defensively.
The Lightning forward falls under the “off-puck/forecheck specialist” category. These players create a high volume of shots with low boxscore and chance numbers. Often, these players have unquantifiable traits that stats tend to underrate. In Cirelli’s case, his defensive zone coverage is under-appreciated, an off-puck aspect of the game.
Cirelli drives upper-echelon defensive results due to how much ground he covers in the defensive zone. He’s one of the best at closing in on attacking players and forcing them to make mistakes. While he doesn’t always earn credit for a defensive zone retrieval, his ability to close opposing forwards into tight spaces drives first-class defensive macro-results. Furthermore, Cirelli terrorizes teams on the forecheck, making him the perfect fit for this player archetype.
Cirelli’s Production Drove Trade Rumors
The catalyst for a Cirelli trade this summer is his underwhelming offensive production. When a forward earns north of $6 million per season, fans expect at least 50 points. However, Cirelli recorded 20 goals and 45 points and hasn’t reached the 50-point plateau in a season. He has played at a 50-point pace in his career, but world circumstances and injuries prevented him from reaching this milestone.
If Cirelli buried his scoring chances and developed a harder shot, he could score more than 50 points in a season. Moreover, with more power play opportunities, the sky is the limit for the 26-year-old. He is similar to Minnesota Wild forward Joel Eriksson Ek in many ways. Both players fit under the “off-puck/forecheck specialist” archetype and play elite defensive hockey.
However, Eriksson Ek plays on the top power-play unit in Minnesota and has a 30-goal season under his belt. While he earns only $5.25 million a season, the consensus is that his contract is a bargain. Therefore, if Cirelli recorded another 10-15 points a season, would he still be a trade candidate for the Lightning this off-season? BriseBois seems to think not and has wisely held on to the two-way center.
Projecting Cirelli’s 2024-25 Campaign
With that said, what are reasonable expectations for him next season? Cirelli found chemistry alongside workhorse Brandon Hagel at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill. In addition, he reached a career-high in goals and points. Historically, NHL players reach their peak around Cirelli’s age, and with Jake Guentzel on the roster to help the 5-on-5 scoring, the 50-point mark is attainable for the two-way forward. Ideally, Cirelli records a 25-goal, 30-assist campaign and continues to slowly improve his game offensively. This increase in production would make his $6.25 million against the cap worth every penny.
