General manager Julien BriseBois made improving his blue line a priority this summer. The Tampa Bay Lightning could not keep the puck out of their net last season, and the team had dipped in defensive metrics the season before after the loss of one critical shutdown defender. Luckily for head coach Jon Cooper, that defenseman is returning to the Lightning for the 2024-25 season. Ryan McDonagh, whose defensive presence has been dearly missed since he left, was re-acquired by BriseBois in a trade with the Nashville Predators.
Defensive Difficulties Without McDonagh
In the summer of 2022, with the team cap-strapped, BriseBois had to shed salary to make room for his younger assets. This left the veteran defender as the odd man out. McDonagh was dealt to the Predators for free, and his absence was apparent for the next two seasons. Last season, the Lightning ranked tied-27th in 5-on-5 goals against per 60 (GA/60). Teams like the Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, and Buffalo Sabres defended better than the Lightning, which is unacceptable. As a playoff-caliber team, they had to improve in their own end to have a chance in the playoffs.
However, Tampa Bay’s expected rates were a much more accurate representation of their position in the standings. They ranked tied-14th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) with the Boston Bruins. The gap between their actual and expected rates is due to poor goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy last season, who had the worst season of his career.
While the low rank in goals against per hour doesn’t tell the entire story, the falloff compared to when McDonagh was on the roster is absurd. The Lightning went from an elite defensive team to roughly average after he was traded to the Predators. How good was McDonagh defensively for the Lightning?
McDonagh’s Elite Tenure in Tampa Bay
McDonagh was a defensive powerhouse, especially during the end of his first tenure with the organization. Amongst defenders with over 500 minutes of ice time at 5-on-5 during the 2021-22 season, McDonagh ranked tied-ninth in 5-on-5 goals against per 60. In other words, he allowed just 1.87 goals every 60 minutes he was on the ice. Moreover, he ranked tied-50th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60.
McDonagh wasn’t relying on elite goaltending for defensive results. Instead, he limited the opponent’s shot quantity and quality to help his team win. In four seasons with Tampa Bay from 2018-19 to 2021-22, McDonagh helped the Lightning rank eighth in 5-on-5 goals against per hour and fifth in 5-on-5 expected goals against per hour.
Additionally, McDonagh was one of the top shutdown defenders in the league. He faced the most challenging competition, matching up against the opponent’s top lines every night. McDonagh was key in two Stanley Cup championships and three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances for Tampa Bay. Using the same metrics from Evolving Hockey, McDonagh ranked 30th in goals against per hour and 40th in expected goals against per hour. Furthermore, his ability to elevate teammates defensively speaks volumes to his impact on the ice. He will be critical to reviving one former defensive stud for the Lightning.
McDonagh Can Revive Cernak and Lightning Blueline
Losing McDonagh affected Erik Cernak the most. During their time together, McDonagh and Cernak formed one of the best shutdown pairings in the NHL. The duo spent roughly 812 minutes of ice time at 5-on-5 across the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. On a per-hour rate at 5-on-5, the pairing allowed 2.07 goals, 1.99 expected goals, 25.19 shots, and 7.91 high-danger shot attempts. However, after McDonagh left Tampa Bay, the Czech defender was not the same player.
For a defenseman earning $5.2 million, one would expect them to be impactful across the board or at least in one facet of the game. In Cernak’s case, he was once a physical shutdown option for Cooper. Yet, he’s been below average in every aspect of the game over the past two seasons without McDonagh.
Using the four defensive metrics I used in the previous paragraph, we can analyze a shocking decline in Cernak’s play. On a per-hour rate, he allowed 2.58 goals, 2.62 expected goals, 28.31 shots, and 11.41 high-danger shot attempts. Daily Faceoff has McDonagh and Cernak re-united on the second pairing for this season. With McDonagh back in town, the Lightning should make leaps and bounds defensively.
