Juаn Soto deаl сould сomрlісаte Yаnkees’ аbіlіty to retаіn Clаy Holmes

In his perfect world, Clay Holmes would return to a Yankees team fresh off a championship.

“We go and win the World Series, have the same team, go and do the same thing again next year,” Holmes said recently. “As players, it’s what we’re focused on.”

Holmes is trying not to focus on his long-term future and where it takes him.

Clay Holmes
Clay Holmes is set to be a free agent after the season.

The Yankees closer is eligible to be a free agent at season’s end and said at the All-Star break that he did not expect discussions to begin about a new contract until after this campaign is over.

Complicating any free-agency deal will be the hundreds of millions that await Juan Soto, who will be the Yankees’ No. 1 priority.

If Soto is retained, the club would likely have little to spend elsewhere: Hal Steinbrenner has said the Yankees’ 2024 payroll, which will exceed $300 million, is “simply not sustainable.”

Holmes, whose calm temperament has helped make him a nice fit in pinstripes, said he wants to return but realizes those decisions will be made in a couple months.

“I think stuff will work out when it needs to,” Holmes said, and the Yankees don’t have a need to work something out until around November.

The righty has gone from revelation to undisputed closer to a somewhat disputed closer in his three and a half years with the Yankees, coming over in what looked like a forgettable July 2021 deal with the Pirates for minor league infielders Diego Castillo and Hoy Park.

Juan Soto
Juan Soto is expected to be the Yankees’ No. 1 priority this offseason.

Neither has done much, while Holmes made his second All-Star team this year.

The Yankees quickly helped unlock Holmes, who has leaned on his sinker to pitch to a 2.55 ERA in 201 ¹/₃ innings with the club.

Only twice, in August 2021 and 2022, did Holmes require trips to the injured list — and both times he returned within the month.

“It’s been special,” Holmes said of his time in New York. “Obviously, everybody’s journey is a little different in that sense, but to be able to come over here and really start to put some things together, it’s been rewarding just being able to go out and really feel like I can contribute to help the team win.”

He has been reliable and excellent, though maybe not dominant.

Lacking from Holmes’ game is an elite ability to miss bats.

Clay Holmes pitches during the Yankees' loss to the Angels on Aug. 7, 2024.
Clay Holmes pitches during the Yankees’ loss to the Angels on Aug. 7, 2024.

This season he has struck out 49 in 46 ²/₃ innings, which is solid but not for a late-game pitcher who sometimes needs outs without the ball being put in play.

The extra-inning ghost runner particularly adds value to a reliever who can strike out the side rather than watch a couple poorly hit batted balls turn into a run.

Many of Holmes’ issues in a season in which he holds a 2.70 ERA but is 24 of 33 in save opportunities have come when opposing batters find holes with ground balls.

No one in baseball gets a better percentage of grounders than Holmes (67.6 percent), and opposing batters’ 87.7 mph average exit velocity is better than most.

But a good-but-not-great 24.5 percent strikeout rate helped prompt the Yankees to add Mark Leiter Jr. (33.7 percent strikeout rate) to a bullpen that needed more swing-and-miss ability.

Holmes has been better than the Yankees could have hoped.

Will they decide they need to find money in the budget to retain the 31-year-old?

There could be plenty of turnover in the bullpen, with Jonathan Loaisiga and Tommy Kahnle also potentially hitting the market.

Leiter cannot reach free agency until after the 2026 season.

Among those under team control at least through next season are Ian Hamilton, Michael Tonkin, Jake Cousins, Enyel De Los Santos and Scott Effross.

The Yankees hold 2025 options for Luke Weaver and Lou Trivino.

Among the other closer options expected on the market: Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Tanner Scott, Carlos Estevez and Yimi Garcia.

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