With the dog days of the off-season upon us, we at Canucks Army have started a thought exercise series looking at two scenarios and trying to decide which is more likely to occur next season. We’ll lay the scenarios out, offer an explanation of our thoughts and then leave the comments section wide open for discussion and debate. It’s quite possible neither scenario is actually achieved. It’s also plausible that both come to fruition. We don’t have a crystal ball, so we’re looking at probabilities here. In the second edition of the series, we are asking which is more likely – Brock Boeser scoring 35 goals next season or Nils Höglander scoring 20?
Brock Boeser
For the first time in his National Hockey League career, Brock Boeser reached the 30-goal mark. And then he took it one step further by scoring 40 goals last season. The 27-year-old made goal-scoring look easy at times with a four-goal game on opening night and a pair of hattricks as the season unfolded. Once thought to be merely a prolific scorer from distance, Boeser has rounded out his game and has developed a knack for scoring in a variety of ways with tips and deflections, rebounds and an ability to find loose pucks in the blue paint. The Burnsville, MN native also became a top-eight power play goal scorer in the NHL last season, potting a team-high 16 with the man advantage. Now, just because he reached the 40-goal mark, there is absolutely no guarantee Boeser gets back to that level next season. Boeser cooked with an overheated 19.6% shooting percentage – well above his 13.8% career average. So, a dip in production seems likely. But it certainly feels like 30 goals should be the expected baseline, given the role he plays, the bond he has forged with JT Miller and the fact Boeser is playing for a new contract.
Nils Höglander
Without question, Nils Höglander scoring 24 goals – all at even strength – was one of the true surprises on a team full of them last season. The 23-year-old went from scoring just three goals and being demoted to AHL Abbotsford early in the 2022-23 season to earning a promotion to the NHL club’s top six because of his remarkable production lower in the lineup as last season moved along. But nothing ever seems simple with Höglander, and that was the case in the playoffs when he scored just once and was a healthy scratch on a couple of occasions. In the regular season, the fiery winger converted on 20% of his 120 shots, well above his career average of 12.5%. In the playoffs, he managed just eight shots in 11 games. So, like Boeser, it’s fair to think that Höglander could be in for a mathematical reality check next season. The Canucks also beefed up at the wing position on July 1st, and that could create internal competition for spots higher up the depth chart when training camp rolls around. Not only that, but if Höglander plays on a line with Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk, it’s certainly possible that DeBrusk accounts for some of the goals Höglander is likely hoping to score next season.
What’s more likely?
While it may be – and likely will be – a struggle for Brock Boeser to repeat as a 40-goal scorer, there is certainly a path to him netting 35 next season. First and foremost, he has to stay healthy, and that hasn’t always been easy for Boeser, who played a career-high 81 games last season but missed Game 7 against the Oilers with a blood clot issue. He seems to have earned the trust of Rick Tocchet and will likely continue to enjoy plenty of ice time. He is a featured scorer on a power play that will surely recommit to finding success after fading down the stretch last season. And don’t discount the power of proving that last year was not a flash in the pan as he heads into a platform year looking for a new long-term deal.
As there is almost every off-season, questions remain about where, exactly, Nils Höglander fits best in the Canucks lineup. He enjoyed plenty of success lower on the depth chart in the early stages of last season. And to his credit, he held his own when he was promoted, although his disappearing act in the playoffs has to be mildly concerning to the coaching staff. Even if he earns a top six role out of training camp, it’s hard to see Höglander being counted on to score at the rate he did last season. He can still be highly effective with his motor running and his ability to get in the faces of opposing players. Those are non-negotiables if he’s going to carve out a long NHL career. The goals are the byproduct of his hard work, and it just doesn’t feel like Höglander will be expected to produce like he did last season.
