After adding some exciting new pieces to this forward group in the early stages of this offseason, expectations around the 2024-25 Edmonton Oilers are continuing to grow.
Last season, the Oilers were among the best offences in the NHL, averaging 3.56 goals per game. Over the last three seasons, they’ve been the only team in the NHL to score north of 900 total goals.
They’ve consistently been the best offensive team in the NHL over the last few years, and now, I think it’s fair to say that they’ll be heading into the year with the deepest and most skilled forward group that they’ve had in the McDavid era.
In 2023-24, the Oilers finished the season with five 20-goal scorers (Hyman, Draisaitl, McDavid, Kane, and Foegele) and had two players nearly miss in Evan Bouchard and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who both had 18.
The franchise record for most 20-goal scorers in a single season is eight. They’ve done it a total of three times as well. The first was back in 1982-83, when Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, Glenn Anderson, Jari Kurri, Ken Linseman, Paul Coffey, Pat Hughes, and Charlie Huddy all hit the mark.
They did it again the next season when Pat Hughes, Willy Lindstrom, and Dave Hunter joined Gretzky, Messier, Anderson, Kurri, and Coffey in the 20-goal club.
They wouldn’t finish with eight 20-goal scorers again until the 1991-92 season when Vincent Damphousse led the team with 38 goals and was joined by Joe Murphy, Craig Simpson, Scott Mellanby, Petr Klima, Anatoli Semenov, Bernie Nicholls and Kelly Buchberger.
Since then the Oilers have not had more than six in a single season. Could that change this year? I think so. I took a look at every player with a somewhat realistic shot of doing it on the roster and also included an arbitrary percentage number that is just a pure guess on my part. Here are my predictions and the cases for each player.
THE LOCKS
Connor McDavid: Heading into his tenth NHL season, McDavid has only failed to hit the 20-goal mark once in his career and it was back in his rookie season when he only played 45 games and still managed to score 16. Even if God forbid he were to get hurt and miss half the season, which would be terrible, he would still likely hit the 20-goal mark.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 99%
Leon Draisaitl: It’s pretty wild to look back at his first season as a pro and see that he only scored two goals in his first 37 games. A good lesson to not judge prospects too early. Since then, he’s scored at a 20-goal pace every single season of his career. Just like McDavid, even if he were to get hurt, he’d still find a way to get to 20 goals.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 99%
Zach Hyman: Coming off a career-best 54-goal season that saw him rank third in third in the Rocket Richard race, Hyman will be looking to score at a 20-goal pace for the seventh straight season. I’ll go ahead and say he just might get it by Christmas. Like the other two, no concerns here.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 98%
BETTER THAN 75%
Jeff Skinner: His career has been up and down, but Jeff Skinner has scored at a 20-goal pace or better in 11 of his 14 NHL seasons. The end of his tenure in Buffalo was plagued by inconsistencies but a chance to play in Edmonton should rejuvenate him and he’ll get a chance to play with some serious skill. Skinner is a natural goal scorer who does a lot of damage at 5v5, so there’s no worry about lack of powerplay time hurting his numbers. 20 goals should happen.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 88%
Viktor Arvidsson: He struggled to stay healthy in 2023-24 but he did score six goals in 18 games with the Los Angeles Kings, which is a solid pace. The biggest concern here is health. If Viktor Arvidsson plays north of 60 games with the Oilers this season, I’m confident he will hit the 20-goal mark. Like Skinner, most of his 20-goal seasons have been fueled by even-strength scoring, which should translate well into this Oilers lineup.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 82%
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: After missing out on the milestone by just two goals last season, Nugent-Hopkins will be looking to hit the 20-goal mark for the sixth time in his career. What’s wild is that he’s scored 18 or 19 goals in a season three other times. So counting those near misses and years where he’s scored well but gotten hurt, he’s been right around a 20-goal scorer eleven times in his career. There are a lot of offensively gifted players on this team, but Nugent-Hopkins should continue to see a lot of powerplay time, which is why I’m still high on his chances of getting to the 20-goal mark.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 75%
BETTER THAN 50%
Adam Henrique: He’s scored at a 20-goal pace in each of the last five seasons, but unlike Skinner and Arvidsson, he has done a decent chunk of that scoring on the power play. Unless the Oilers’ second unit magically starts playing more than they have in the past, I don’t think Henrique is going to score his usual 4-6 power play goals. Still, I think just considering the fact he’s a pretty proven goal scorer, I think he’ll be able to hit the mark. When he came over to the Oilers last season, he managed to produce six goals in 22 games, which is a 22-goal pace over 82 games.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 58%
Evander Kane: I am living off the assumption that Kane won’t be ready to go for the start of the season, which is why I have him a little bit lower down on this list. Also, he’s been pushed down the depth chart a bit through the Oilers’ offseason moves. If he’s healthy, I think there’s a good chance that Kane spends more time in the bottom six than riding shotgun with either McDavid or Draisaitl, so I think the chances of him hitting the 20-goal mark are a little bit lower than they have been in years past. Granted, he’s scored at a 20-goal pace in 14 straight seasons, so maybe I shouldn’t be so down on a guy with so much natural goal-scoring ability. He’s also the king of scoring hat tricks.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 53%
BETTER THAN 25%
Evan Bouchard: He finished with 18 goals last season during his offensive breakout, but can he make the jump to 20? Last season, four defensemen hit the 20-goal mark so it’s not an unrealistic expectation to think that Bouchard can do it. I won’t say it’s a 50% chance because it’s really hard for a defenceman to do it, but I really like Bouchard’s chances. He’s the only defenceman in the league who gets to play with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the regular and that obviously gives him a big boost. I would also love for them to try to use his shot more on the power play. Not only would it boost his offence, but it would also open up other shooting opportunities with the man advantage.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 49%
Dylan Holloway: I am admittedly higher on Holloway than most, but there’s no denying he was a totally different player down the stretch and into the playoffs. He scored three goals in the final six regular season games that he appeared in and followed it up by scoring five times in 25 playoff games. That’s eight goals in a 31-game stretch, good for a 21-goal pace over 82 games. Expecting Holloway to take another step forward next season is not unrealistic at all. 20-goals isn’t that big of a stretch for the former first-round pick, especially if he finds a more permanent spot in the team’s top six.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 33%
THE LONG SHOTS
Connor Brown: Okay, before you start yelling, he did score four goals in the final 17 games of the season last year. That’s a 19-goal pace! He’s due for some good puck luck right? Maybe he gets a cup of coffee on a skill line? Maybe? I’m reaching here, but I thought he deserved to be in the long-shots part of this article. He’s scored 20 goals before!
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 10%
Corey Perry: He did score eight goals in 38 games last season for the Oilers, which is close to being on pace for a 20-goal season, but I’m not holding my breath this time around. I don’t think he’ll play more than 41 games this season so I don’t think he’s scoring 20 goals.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 4%
Darnell Nurse: He has scored at a 20-goal pace before when he scored 16 goals in the 56-game season back in 2020-21. What’s even more impressive is that only one of those goals came on the powerplay. He’s hit double digits in back-to-back seasons, but 20 would be a stretch.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 3%
Matt Savoie: He’s going to start the year in Bakersfield, and likely finish the year there too, but what if there’s a world where he’s either so good in the AHL or someone on the big club gets hurt and he comes up by January and just never gives his spot back. If he plays 50 games on a skill line, maybe he has a chance at it? It’s far from likely though. It’s a pipe dream. But I wanted to throw him in here because it’s the summer and a man can dream.
Chances of hitting 20-goals: 2%
