The Miami Heat were 39-34 through 73 games last year, which is one game worse than their current record for the 2023-24 season. The difference now, though, is that few fans see them as a disappointment. Winning the Eastern Conference after starting in the NBA Play-In Tournament has earned this team the benefit of the doubt for the upcoming playoffs.

It is asking a lot, however, to trust that a potentially Tyler Herro-less Heat squad can overcome the odds for a second year in a row.

A clutch star, an elite defender who is also a double-double machine, veteran role players who can catch fire and an impactful rookie all make Miami a challenging postseason foe. Maybe even more so than in 2023. But fans have no interest in putting themselves through extreme stress once again.

While the East is certainly taxing, it is also top-heavy and far less deeper than the West. Therefore, mapping out a favorable path for head coach Erik Spoelstra and company should seemingly be a manageable task. Executing it will not be, though, as there are multiple upstarts who can match Miami’s signature grit.

Nevertheless, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and the Heat will gladly face a group lacking in postseason experience rather than be thrust immediately into the fire like last time. Let’s see how an optimal path in the 2024 NBA Playoffs looks for the enigmatic Heat.

Dream scenario for Heat: Avoid Play-In Tournament, first and foremost

It was a little over a year ago when Miami became the poster team for the NBA Play-In Tournament, thereby vindicating Commissioner Adam Silver for the recent innovation. The thrilling victory over the Chicago Bulls, which came after a stinging defeat to the Atlanta Hawks, encapsulated the erratic nature of the 2023 Heat and added to their historic postseason showing.

South Beach does not need any extra drama in 2024, however. Adversity may build character, but a week of rest can allow Spoelstra’s squad to be fresh for the actual playoffs. And that is a scary thought for an Eastern Conference bracket that is burdened with suffocating pressure at the top, and riddled with question marks in the middle and bottom.

The Heat currently reside in the danger zone at seventh place but are only two games out of fifth. Their final nine regular season contests include road meetings with the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks and home matchups versus the Toronto Raptors. The fourth-place New York Knicks and red-hot Houston Rockets are definite obstacles, but the overall schedule is a golden opportunity for Miami to climb the standings.

An April 7th showdown with the Indiana Pacers (sixth place) should be loaded with playoff seeding implications. With the Orlando Magic presently on a three-game losing streak, Miami can reasonably reach the No. 5 slot. Home-court advantage in the opening round is also attainable, but making such a prognostication feels more suitable for a fantasy seeding scenario instead of a dream one.

That being said, No. 6 is the sweet spot for this team.

Despite last year, the Heat shouldn’t be rushing to play the Celtics

Rooting for the Heat to finish strong but not strong enough to launch into fifth is obviously a futile exercise to engage in when wins are so valuable. Besides, they are not afraid of going through the top-seeded Boston Celtics again. Their fans might be, though.

At full strength, the C’s are more balanced and intimidating than they were in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. It is best to avoid them until the pressure for Boston to win a championship approaches its peak. In the meantime, Miami must focus on taking the path of least resistance. Enter the injury-ravaged Knicks.

A first-round NBA playoffs series against one of the aforementioned young up-and-coming teams like the Magic and Pacers is ideal, but if we are operating under the notion that the Heat benefit from being in the No. 6 hole, it is difficult to envision either Orlando or Indiana soaring to third during the final stretch of the regular season. New York, on the other hand, is only a half-game behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for that spot.

A No. 6 vs. No. 3 matchup with the undermanned Knicks feels ideal

The Knickerbockers have remarkably prevailed in the face of misfortune, maintaining their positioning despite being without All-NBA talent Julius Randle, glue guy OG Anunoby and big man Mitchell Robinson for a significant period of time. Their determination, along with the intoxicating play of star guard Jalen Brunson, is befitting of a Hollywood script.

Except for the ending, that is. The Heat overcame their own set of devastating circumstances in 2023, but they already had NBA Finals experience to draw from. It is less grueling to run the gauntlet when you know you’ve done it before. The Knicks are still working towards that accomplishment, which will presumably be harder given their injury uncertainty.

The process of fully assimilating Randle and Anunoby back into the lineup has not even begun yet, and who is to say it will happen without a hitch? Miami can rival New York’s physicality, while also taking advantage of its offensive depth issues. But this prediction is made with complete respect to the opposition. The Knicks have come a long way and are making considerable headway in the East.

Being eliminated by the Heat for a second-straight postseason would not necessarily change that fact. Jimmy Butler is prepared to match Brunson’s firepower if need be, but he will also lean on guys like Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro (if available) to sink shots in crunch time. They are perfectly capable of engaging in a war of attrition as well.

Can 2024 go the same way as 2023 for the Heat?

I believe the dream path for the Miami Heat requires them to vanquish the same teams they ousted last year, albeit in a different order. Their dismantlement of the Milwaukee Bucks is unlikely to be repeated, but they can still edge out Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard in a six or seven-game series.

Doc Rivers’ recent postseason results cannot be ignored, and neither can the Bucks’ inconsistent play. Just when Milwaukee seems to be putting everything together, the team suffers a brutal collapse at home versus the Los Angeles Lakers. That type of vulnerability and unpredictability does not jive with postseason basketball, especially when the Heat culture is taking effect.

Miami has its own new addition to combat the revamped Bucks in the form of Jaime Jaquez Jr. Every heart-stopping NBA Playoffs run features the emergence of a non-household name, and the 2023 first-round pick out of UCLA is destined to fill that role at some point. With his toughness and strong court awareness, Jaquez embodies everything this organization preaches.

If they get past New York and Milwaukee again, the Heat will be brimming with confidence ahead of what could their third Eastern Conference Finals clash with the Celtics since 2020. Because the disparity in talent is greater than it has been in the past, intangibles like swagger and grit are probably Miami’s best chance to pull off its biggest upset yet.

Jimmy Butler is 34 years old, Terry Rozier is up and down, Tyler Herro is injured and the team struggles to score. Many of those things were true during the 2023 NBA Playoffs, too, though.

The three Cs– coaching, chemistry and clutch– can spur the Heat to another riveting postseason experience. In which case, the East might be inflicted with an unbearable case of deja vu.