We here at Canucks Army are kicking off our previews for each Vancouver Canuck player for this upcoming 2024-2025 season. In this exercise, we will set the expectations for a particular player and discuss what their season might look like if they meet, exceed, or go below expectations.

Today, we’ll discuss Dakota Joshua’s goals and expectations for the first season of his new four-year contract.

When looking up and down last year’s Canucks roster, it’s hard not to find a player who had a career season. However, no player was more surprising to watch elevate his game more than the 6’3″, 206-lb power forward. Joshua set career highs in goals (18), assists (14), points (32), plus/minus rating (+19) and time on ice (14:23).

But the impressing wasn’t just on the offensive side of the ice. Joshua finished second on the team in penalties drawn (25) and third in penalty kill ice time among forwards per game (1:49). Along with his penalty killing, Joshua was also trusted in a match-up role against opposing teams’ top lines. During the postseason, Joshua was paired with Elias Lindholm and Conor Garland as the shutdown line against the Nashville Predators top line (Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist), holding them to just seven 5v5 points through their six-game series.

He took another step in his physicality. Joshua finished first on the Canucks in hits – six shy of his career high. In fact, he finished 11th in the league – tied with now-Canuck, Kiefer Sherwood – with 216 hits. Joshua carried this over to the postseason, where he led playoffs in hits (74) until halfway through the Stanley Cup final, despite being eliminated in the second round.

What was so amazing about the 2023-2024 rendition of Dakota Joshua was that his emergence came as a surprise to everybody. But now that the secrets are out on him, what are some realistic expectations and goals for him in the 2024-2025 season?

Meeting expectations: 40 point season. Continue strong play on the third line while maintaining his role on the penalty kill. 

Is an eight-point increase from last season meeting expectations? Yes, it is. If you average out his 82-game pace, he would have scored 41 points. And when you think about it, what has changed for Joshua? He spent most of the season playing on a line with Teddy Blueger and Garland, and if Tocchet continues to roll them out as a line, the expectation is that they’ll be able to repeat last year’s magic.

What’s most impressive about his 32-point campaign was that 31 of those points came at even strength. So he was already on pace for this total at just 5v5, and if powerplay time is added to Joshua’s repertoire, this expectation might be too low.

Vancouver did bring in some penalty-killing talent this free agency with Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen and Sherwood. However, it shouldn’t affect Joshua’s playing time. DeBrusk averaged 1:37 minutes (fifth among forwards on his team), Heinen averaged 1:16 minutes (seventh among forwards on his team), and Sherwood averaged 20 seconds (ninth among forwards on his team) of penalty-killing time per game, while Joshua averaged 1:49 minutes (third among forwards on his team) – second with the departure of Elias Lindholm.

Above expectations: 25 goal, 50 point campaign. Elevated into a top six role. 

Dakota was close to hitting 20 goals last season, and had he not missed time, he very well could have hit this threshold. Had Joshua played a full 82 games, he was on pace to score 23 goals last season. Now, considering Joshua had 15 goals throughout his first three seasons, it’s certainly not expected he’ll produce at the same level in the scoring department as last season.

Elevated in the top six might be a stretch, given how favourable it was to have him and Garland in a depth-scoring role. However, the Canucks added a lot of forwards this offseason that can fill his role on the third line. The Canucks couldn’t afford to elevate Joshua last season; they would lose too much of their depth. Now that they’ve signed players like Heinen, Daniel Sprong and Sherwood, why not give him a shot on J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser’s line?

It’s evident that Rick Tocchet likes to play in pairs, which helped Vancouver be so successful last season. The pairs this season will likely be Elias Pettersson with DeBrusk, Miller with Boeser and Joshua with Garland, but putting two heavy-hitting defensive power forwards together with a sniper might help elevate the entire line.

This is not something we’ll see once opening night rolls around. But if the team struggles to find chemistry with the new incoming players, it wouldn’t be outlandish to see Joshua bumped up in the lineup. If that’s the case, it would also help his 25-goal, 50-point season.

Below expectations: Become a one season wonder. Fail to register 20 points, losing his penalty kill time and get demoted to the fourth line.

Nobody wants to see this happen, but his breakout came out of nowhere. Joshua scored as many points this season as he had in his entire three-season career. This sounds like a familiar player.

Does anybody remember Bryan Bickell? He has a similar player type and come up through the league as Joshua had – if not a little more established.

Bickell had a legendary 2013 postseason, where he scored nine goals and 17 points in 23 games en route to a Stanley Cup. Bickell averaged his highest point per game regular season that year, earning him a four-year $4 million extension with the Chicago Blackhawks. Throughout the first three years of his contract, Bickell played 164 games, amassing just 45 points. He was then traded to the Carolina Hurricanes for the final year of his deal, where he would play just 11 games. Bickell would not sign another NHL contract.

Could Joshua follow in his footsteps? His penalty-killing prowess does bode well for him not to flop like Bickell. But if he loses his spot on the penalty kill and he’s not producing at 5v5 or a member of the powerplay, we could see him become a one-season-wonder.

Goals for Dakota Joshua in 2024-2025:

-Score 20 goals for the first time in his career.

-Shatter his previous 32-point career high season.

-Finish top five in hits in the NHL.

-Earn a role on the second powerplay unit.

-Finish in the top two in penalty kill minutes among Canucks forwards.

We’ve discussed how his goals and points are certainly within reach for Joshua this season. However, earning a role on the second powerplay unit might be more difficult. It was shocking that he only averaged 22 seconds of powerplay time last season, given how lacklustre the second unit was, but now there is so much more competition in front of time. DeBrusk will replace Lindholm, but now there’s Sprong, Sherwood, Garland and Pius Suter to compete for spots with.

It’s not out of the realm of possibilities, but definitely much more difficult with the offseason additions.

Finishing in the top five in hits across the entire NHL might sound farfetched, considering he only finished 14th. But keep in mind that he missed 19 games in February and March with a hand injury after a fight with MacKenzie Entwistle. If we’re to crunch the numbers with averages to find out what Joshua would have finished with had he played a full 82-game season, he would have had 281 hits, which would be good for third across the entire league. It’s not hard to project him to finish near the top of the NHL again if he plays a full season.

What do you think Canucks fans? What are your expectations for the freshly re-signed Dakota Joshua in the upcoming 2024-2025 season?