The Vancouver Canucks don’t need Elias Pettersson to be at the peak of his game until opening night on October 9th against Calgary. But given the way he faded down the stretch last season and through the playoffs, concerns about a nagging knee injury and with his new $11.6M contract now on the books, wouldn’t it be something if the 25-year-old centre showed up at training camp in Penticton and left absolutely no doubt that he was back — and back in a big way. It would likely ease the fears in the minds of many if Pettersson set the tone at training camp, carried that over into the preseason and then hit the ground running for the start of the 82-game regular season that follows.

Pettersson has demonstrated star level ability in his first six seasons in the National Hockey League. As poorly as last season finished, he showed as recently as January – when he tied with Sam Reinhart of Florida for the league lead in goals with 14 for the month – that he can still take over hockey games. But the Canucks need Pettersson to find that level again. And it would help if it was there from the start of the season.

With big contracts come big expectations – especially in a market like Vancouver. So any signs of struggle are bound to be met by the criticism that comes with being the highest paid player on the team and one of the top earners in the sport.

The Canucks have bolstered their winger depth in the off-season and their biggest free agent acquisition Jake DeBrusk was signed with the sole intention of giving Elias Pettersson a legitimate scoring threat to play with. Those two have to find chemistry early on and be ready to produce when the team starts playing for keeps.

Elias Pettersson: Above Expectations for 2024-25

For Pettersson to exceed expectations next season, it’s as much about look and feel as it is a prescribed point total. The Canucks need their star centre to do his dekes on the regular, to play with confidence, to battle through checks and to be two or three steps ahead of opponents when it comes to knowing what he’s going to do with the puck. He’s never going to skate like Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon, but he possesses off the chart hockey sense and has a plus level shot.

The Canucks need Pettersson to dig in and take over games again. There have to be many nights over the course of a long season when he leaves absolutely no doubt about the best player on the ice. He’s been a 102-point scorer in this league already and if all goes well next season, he’ll be back at that level again. If the Canucks can figure out power play entries and spend more time working with the puck in the offensive zone, that should help boost point totals across the board. If Jake DeBrusk finishes some of the many chances that died on the stick of Ilya Mikheyev, that should help Pettersson’s production, too.

Oh, and if he takes being left off the initial list of Swedish players for the Four Nations Face-Off as a snub and uses that as motivation, the Canucks stand to benefit as a result. Add it all up, and for Pettersson to exceed expectations, he will score 40 for the first time in his NHL career and crest 100 points once again, put himself in the Hart Trophy conversation while also building up his Selke value and he’ll help the Canucks advance to the Western Conference Final with a strong playoff showing.

Elias Pettersson: Meeting Expectations for 2024-25

With a player like Pettersson, the bar should be high. So despite the way last season ended, it’s important to recognize he was still a top 20 scorer in the NHL with 34 goals and 55 assists for 89 points. Think about that. He nearly reached 90 points while playing with a regular winger that scored just once after Christmas. There is simply too much natural talent there for Pettersson not to have a 90-point baseline for the rest of this decade.

His shot total dropped by 50 last season and knowing how well he shoots the puck, it would serve him and the team well to get more shots away both at even strength and on the power play. Although in saying that, he still led the Canucks with 207 shots last season. And as he’s surrounded by others who want the puck, too, it’s perhaps unrealistic to expect Pettersson to boost his shot total significantly. Still, from a career-high of 257 two years ago, there seems to be some room to grow.

Hopefully Pettersson has used his summer training to gain a little more lower body and core strength to stay on his feet when competing for loose pucks.

More than anything, consistency is key. Pettersson had 20 goals and 53 points at the midway mark last season and appeared well on his way to establishing career highs in every statistical category. He managed just 14 goals and 36 points over a disappointing second half of the schedule. The hope is Pettersson took those struggles to heart and will come back a more complete player. For him to meet expectations, he’ll be a 35 goal/90 point player who looks invested almost every night out and makes those around him better. That seems like the bare minimum to ask of a guy making close to $12M.

Elias Pettersson: Below Expectations for 2024-25

The concern here is that the second half of last season wasn’t a mirage. That for whatever reason, Pettersson has lost the spark that allows him to take control of hockey games. That seems like a long shot, but the Canucks and Canucks fans waited for months to see Pettersson pull himself out of the slump that started at the All-Star break and continued for months through the playoffs. It was shocking at times to see how ineffective he was. It still boggles the mind to think a player of his stature finished with just one playoff goal and none at 5-on-5.

The Canucks brought Jake DeBrusk in specifically to play on Pettersson’s wing. They’re banking on those two finding chemistry early on. If Pettersson struggles out of the gate, how will he deal with the fallout? Will he use criticism to fuel him or will he let the noise of the market get to him? The Canucks need star-level Elias Pettersson to help them achieve their goal of advancing further in the playoffs than they did last season. A below expectation season for Pettersson still likely yields offensive output most players in the league would take in a heartbeat – something in the neighbourhood of 30 goals and 80 points.

Let’s face it, the expectation for Elias Pettersson has to start at a point per game. That’s a threshold he should be able to meet. More than anything though, the Canucks need Pettersson to deliver in the playoffs. They got to Game 7 of the second round with minimal contributions from their star centre last spring. The true measure of Pettersson’s season will be wrapped up in just how far the hockey club advances on the path to the Stanley Cup next year.

Goals for Elias Pettersson in 2024-25

As outlined above, Elias Pettersson needs to return to Vancouver determined to put the finish of last season behind him. It’s a new season and he has to turn the page and get back to being a dominant performer for the Canucks. As for individual goals for the season ahead:

-push for 100 points

-contend for team lead in both goals and points

-put himself on the long list of Hart Trophy candidates and in the discussion for the Selke

-lead the Canucks back to the playoffs and elevate his performance in the post-season

-get his hands — and his name — on the Stanley Cup

Those are lofty goals to be sure, but the bar should be set high for a player of Pettersson’s calibre. The Canucks have committed to him with his long-term mega deal and now that commitment needs to be rewarded with elite level performance. There needs to be consistency to Pettersson’s game that was lacking over the second half of last season. And ultimately, he needs to find a way to dominate games in the post-season. It’s going to be a long road just to get to the playoffs and Elias Pettersson will have to play a key role in that part of the journey. But he — and the team — are both at a point now where they will ultimately be judged on how well they perform on the Stanley Cup stage.