Such a salary is adequate compensation for a netminder who shoulders the brunt of the workload and provides a serviceable performance (or better) on most nights. The question is whether he deserves a long-term deal and the raise that would surely accompany an extension. The 2024-25 season represents a flashpoint in Georgiev’s future with the Avalanche, especially with 24-year-old Justus Annunen breathing down his neck. Here’s a look at the first two years of Georgiev’s tenure in Colorado and the merits of a new deal.

Georgiev’s Avalanche Tenure Is a Tale of Two Goalies

On the whole, Georgiev has delivered on what was expected of him when he joined the Avalanche. He’s played (GP) the second-most games in the NHL over the past two seasons (125) and grades out as a starting-caliber goaltender (top 32) in every key statistical category, including goals-against average (GAA), save percentage (SV%), and goals saved above expected (GSAx) among qualified goalies (minimum 20 games played).

Georgiev’s performance compared to other goaltenders over the past two seasons – minimum 20 games played

There is a difference between the two seasons. Georgiev did play (62 vs. 63) and win (40 vs. 38) the same number of games from 2022-23 to 2023-24, but his individual performance dropped significantly. His SV% plummeted from .918 to .897 while his GAA rose from 2.53 to 3.02 to finish in the bottom half of all qualified goalies league-wide (minimum 10 games played).

While Georgiev’s stat line tells an accurate story about his second season in Colorado, more jarring was his inconsistency. Of the 62 games he played in 2022-23, he allowed three or more goals on 31 occasions. In 2023-24, he allowed three or more goals in 37 of 63 appearances, six more times in just one more game. Georgiev also allowed four or more goals in a game in 16 of his 62 games in 2022-23, a tally which jumped to 25 this past season.

In fairness, Georgiev posted a positive GSAx tally (plus-0.45) for the second-consecutive season, but it was a far cry from the plus-18.7 mark he boasted during his debut season with the Avalanche. The latter figure ranked 11th among all goalies in 2022-23, prompting uncertainty about where the Russian ranked among his peers and whether his performance was a product of his team’s defensive system. While there is evidence that the Avalanche found it more difficult to contain opposing attacks in all situations compared to 2022-23, they were by no means a terrible (i.e. bottom 10) defensive unit.

The Avalanche’s defensive ranks in all situations in 2022-23 and 2023-24 per 60 minutes (courtesy of Natural Stat Trick)

The story of Georgiev’s 2023-24 season appears to have been a combination of a heavy workload and a slightly worse defensive system taking its toll on a goalie who doubled his career games played since joining the team. Georgiev showed well in his first playoff outing with the Avalanche (.914 SV% and plus-0.63 GSAx) but saw an awful first-round performance sink his numbers in the 2024 Playoffs (.894 SV% and plus-0.5 GSAx).

Despite the discrepancy in performance, Georgiev will be seeking a raise on his next contract simply because he has comparable or better numbers than his peers and will be 29 next summer.

Georgiev’s Comparables Suggest Raise for Next Contract

Georgiev is being paid like a low-end starter or tandem goalie, which is what his play warranted when he joined the Avalanche. While many may point to the inconsistency and the recent instability at the position as reasons to cut bait, he can highlight the salaries of goaltenders who have played much worse than he has over the past two seasons.

Looking at the list of active NHL goalie contracts, only Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5 million AAV), Connor Hellebuyck ($8.5 million AAV), Ilya Sorokin ($8.25 million AAV) have significantly outperformed Georgiev in both the regular season and playoffs and have long-term deals, offering a clear ceiling for his next deal.

Igor Shesterkin ($5.66 million AAV), Thatcher Demko, Linus Ullmark, and Juuse Saros (all three with a $5 million AAV) are unrestricted free agents (UFAs) either this summer or next and will command sizable raises.

While Georgiev could wait and see where those higher-tier goalies slot into the contract hierarchy, he could also point to some bloated deals to bolster his case. Philipp Grubauer ($5.9 million AAV), Elvis Merzlikins ($5.4 million AAV), Darcy Kuemper ($5.25 million AAV), and Cal Petersen ($5 million AAV) have all performed much worse than Georgiev over the past two seasons and rank within the 20 highest-paid netminders heading into the 2024-25 season.

Georgiev’s third season with the Avalanche could be a make-or-break moment for his NHL career. Recency bias has reduced his value after a poor second season and playoff showing, but a return to form in 2024-25 while still playing most of Colorado’s games could earn him a lucrative extension, whether in Denver or elsewhere.

Though the aforementioned cases may push NHL general managers to be more cautious (NHL history suggests otherwise), Georgiev has a statistical basis for his agent to wield in contract negotiations. Depending on his performance in 2024-25, a long-term contract carrying a $6 million AAV would not be surprising. Whether the Avalanche are in a position to give it to him is another conversation, but it could be a tense year in Denver.