Despite helping the Oilers go to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last month, some still question if Stuart Skinner is the goalie to lead the Edmonton Oilers to the Stanley Cup.

I believe he is more than capable of helping Edmonton win a Cup.

Skinner proved he can bounce back and play well after some struggles in the Vancouver series. Skinner watched Game 4 and Game 5, but returned and won Game 6 and Game 7, then defeated Dallas in six games before losing to Florida in seven. In those 15 games Skinner had a 2.05 GAA and a .914Sv%. His expected goals against were 39, and he allowed 31. In that same time period Sergei Bobrovsky played 14 games and posted a 2.19 GAA and .912Sv% with an expected goals against of 33 and he allowed 30.

Skinner didn’t have a great series v. Vegas in 2023, but he was a rookie goalie in his first playoffs. Players struggling in their first playoffs is not new. Even Connor McDavid struggled, by his standards, with only nine points in his first playoff run (13 games) in 2017.

When Skinner was sat down for Game 5, much of the talk was about his early playoff struggles and his porous numbers. It was a valid concern, but when he returned, he was quite strong. He only allowed more than three goals in two of his final 15 games. He allowed two or fewer goals in 11 of 15 starts which is why he went 9-6. There wasn’t nearly as much discussion about his solid play when he returned compared to his struggles v. Vancouver, and for me his strong finish can’t be overlooked.

Skinner turns 26 in November. By goalie standards he is still quite young. Despite only playing two NHL seasons, Skinner has gained a significant amount of experience. He never had an opportunity to be a backup and dip his toe in the NHL. He was thrust into the starter’s role because Jack Campbell struggled in 2023. It was a quick learning curve, and far from a smooth transition, but how Skinner rebounded after his two-game benching can’t be overlooked. He exhaled and played up to his potential in the final 15 playoff games.

At times I think expectations for goalies are unrealistic. Rarely do we see goalies make significant impacts in the league like forwards of defenceman. Part of it is due to opportunity, as there is only one goalie on the ice each game compared to 12 forwards and six defenders, but it is also the mental strain of being a goalie. If a forward or defender makes a mistake, there are others behind them who can help it not appear on the scoresheet. For a goalie, they are the last line. If they err, the goal is usually instant.

Players get to experience way more in-game action, especially early in their careers.

Let’s look at goalies drafted since 2015. There is a total of 21 goalies who were eligible to be drafted in that span and have made at least 30 starts. Only 21 of them who have been drafted in the last 10 years. Skinner was drafted in the third round in 2017 and he’s started 118 games. That ranks 73rd among all goalies since the start of the 2015-16 season. In that same time period 987 skaters have played in at least 123 games. A big reason most goalies take longer to develop at the NHL level is due to a lack of in-game action and opportunity.

Here are the 19 goalies drafted since 2015, and the two undrafted goalies, who were eligible to be drafted during those years.

Skinner is ninth among them in games started, he is tied for sixth in Sv%, sixth in GAA and only Jeremy Swayman  (+37)has a better GA-xGA differential than Skinner’s +18. (This is from Natural Stat trick, and while I question how accurate it is, I mention it as a guideline.) It isn’t surprising that goalies on bad teams had a higher GA than xGA, as often those bad teams give up more high-danger chances.

Skinner has performed quite well against his peers, when we look at goalies of similar age and experience. The advantage he has over them is that while he ranks 73rd among all NHL goalies in starts in that span, he ranks 17th in playoff starts from 2015-16 to now. He’s had more exposure to high-pressure games, and while he struggled v. Vegas in 2023 and Vancouver in 2024, he also rebounded with a strong final 15 games this year.

Skinner is constantly working on his mental game. He works on his technique and physical game as well, but he’s a big believer that mental toughness is key to success at his position. He chose to look at the two-game benching v. Vancouver as an opportunity to learn more about himself.

“I’ve been working on my mental game for a long time here. It’s just another experience where I got to work on some more stuff mentally. So being able to kind of throw that frustration down and just be the best teammate that I could possibly be, I had a lot of fun and was able to get my work in. Really good for me.”

When you consider how few NHL games he’s actually played, it is fair to say he’s far from a finished product. His best performances are likely still ahead of him.

Skinner was fifth in games started last year at 57. He was tied for third in wins at 36. Among the 31 goalies who started at least 40 games, he was tied with Oettinger and Jacob Markstrom for 17th in Sv% at .905. Juuse Saros was 15th at .906. Skinner ranked 10th in GAA at 2.62. There is room to improve, and I expect he will simply due to gaining more experience, confidence and comfort as a starting NHL goalie.

Skinner, like the entire Oilers team, had a rough start to the season. His first nine starts produced some ugly numbers, but after Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey were hired, Skinner’s numbers improved, as did the play of the team.

From November 12th to the end of the season, 35 goalies made at least 30 starts. Skinner ranked fourth in starts (49), first in wins (34), eighth in Sv% (.912) and fifth in GAA (2.46). Heading into this season Skinner ranks 37th in AAV at $2.6m (I didn’t include Carey Price, because he isn’t playing). He has two seasons remaining on his deal. He was a bargain last year at $2.6m, and over the next two seasons, he and Petr Kochetkov ($2m AAV) could battle for the best value contract in the NHL.

I understand why many focused on his playoff struggles. Everything in the playoffs is magnified, but how he rebounded in his final 15 games wasn’t discussed enough. If you are going to rip a player when he struggles, then you should also acknowledge when he performs well. Skinner did both, and if you believe in the adage, “It’s not how you start, but how you finish,” then Oilers fans should be excited about Skinner’s future.

He’s young, gained invaluable experience, shown the ability to bounce back, and matches up very well against peers of similar age.

The future looks bright for Skinner, and from my vantage point he is more than capable of giving the Oilers quality goaltending to push for a Stanley Cup.