According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Columbus Blue Jackets forward Patrik Laine has cleared the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance program and is free to return to the team. Laine has made it known that he wants a fresh start somewhere else, putting a top-six forward on the trade market in the doldrums of the offseason. With the Buffalo Sabres potentially looking to add another scoring winger, Laine’s name is undoubtedly going to be tossed around.
Whether Patrik Laine can help the Sabres is the diagnosis we’ll get to, but first, there are three hurdles.
1. Physical Health
First off, he’s recovering from shoulder surgery. Laine only managed to play 18 games last season for the Blue Jackets. His durability is a concern, as, over four seasons in Columbus, the forward’s highest number of games played in a season is 56.
2. Mental Health
It’s no secret that Laine’s struggled to find his place in the league since being drafted second overall by the Winnipeg Jets in 2016. He’s a prolific goal-scorer but wasn’t to establish himself as a leader or go-to player on his teams. His discontent with his place in Columbus is now the second time he’s worked himself out of a market at only 26 years old.
3. Contract
Patrik Laine’s entering year three of four on his current contract, which carries an $8.7 million cap hit, per PuckPedia. The Sabres have a lot of cap space, but not quite that much room to take on Laine’s deal in full. Given the tight cap situations across the NHL, the Blue Jackets would likely have to retain salary on a Laine trade anyway.
Buffalo is one of the better-positioned teams in the league to add, so, with some finagling, they could make a deal work. Then the question becomes if he is worth the salary cap dollars he’d eat up as a producer for the team.
Laine Comps
When charting his attributes, it’s clear that Patrik Laine is an elite shooter and not much else. His shot-blocking rates were spiked in limited time last season, as were his penalties drawn. This puts him in the company of aggressive, scoring, complementary shooters like the Minnesota Wild’s Ryan Hartman and the Anaheim Ducks’ Frank Vatrano.
While Laine’s quality finishing ability ranks in the 98th percentile, his playmaking is in the 23rd, and his defense is abysmal in the 5th. He’s regarded as a powerplay specialist, but teams have figured out he’s one-dimensional in the role, dropping him to the 33rd percentile.
Laine Profile
Okay, so Laine may be a one-trick pony, but what if that trick is really good? After all, he’s scored 204 goals in the league over 480 NHL games, which is a shade under a 35-goal pace across an 82-game season.
The Sabres have a wide range of play drivers, playmakers, and shooters on the team, so it’s a matter of line fit for Laine. His projected line to start with, if traded for, would be next to Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn. Let’s evaluate what he could bring to the trio.
Player Mindset
Laine is an offensive-minded player, no matter how you crack it. His even-strength defensive impact metrics are among the worst in the league. Instead of trying to improve his defensive play, Laine strictly focuses on outscoring his problems.
You can tell that Laine’s offensive impact isn’t nearly as much as Cozens’ and Quinn’s. He’d depend on them to create in the zone and to create lanes to exploit his shot.
Shooting Mentality
Charting the shooting mentality of the three players better shows how Laine could contribute. Cozens and Quinn would be the creators on the line and Laine and Quinn are the elite shooters. There’s a certain synergy when these three approaches are combined.
Play Driving
Patrik Laine spends an average amount of time in the offensive zone, mostly thanks to his teammates. Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn are significant play drivers, as evidenced by the boosted shot totals and shot quality of teammates when on their line.
This means that the Sabres can afford a dependent player in their top six, but it comes at the price of versatility in changing the lineup. Think of Jeff Skinner after he was moved away from Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch last season. He had a hard time fitting in on the third line with Peyton Krebs, and the Sabres suffered because of it.
Physicality
The Buffalo Sabres added a lot of speed and physicality to their bottom six forwards, making it a clear focus this offseason. Laine would go against that emphasis, as he offers next-to-nothing in the hits and aggression department.
Physicality isn’t necessarily correlated to winning, except for a certain compete-level that players dragging teams into the fight reach. It also can influence teammates to pick up their game and keep everyone involved.
If Laine was acquired from the Blue Jackets, the Sabres would only have Cozens doing such on their second line. This causes concern for dormancy at times throughout the season.
Patrik Laine Verdict
The Sabres have a former 30-goal scorer penciled in at second-line left wing already in Jason Zucker. Patrik Laine would be a younger but more expensive alternative. Laine’s goal-scoring production is more consistent than Zucker’s, so it would be an upgrade in that sense.
As far as fit, the Sabres are turning to their young core to take over the leadership, and accountability was a concern last season. Laine has some accountability issues as a player and his recent visit to the Player Assistance Program raises some red flags.
Combine that with durability concerns in recent seasons and a cost-prohibitive contract, and Laine is one player that the Sabres should probably stay away from.
