Drew O’Connor finally had his breakout later last season.

The easy going kid from New Jersey was in his first full NHL season. He scored 16 goals and 33 points in 79 games, and there was no more shuttling in and out of the press box, no more hauling back and forth to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

He was finally in the NHL, and he earned positive reviews from teammates and coaches alike. His game grew.

“I think watching them is one thing. When you’re on the ice with them, you kind of learn how (Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) see the game a little differently, and you try to pick things up like that,” O’Connor told PHN back in January. “So I think it’s been a good experience for me, just being on the ice with them and seeing how they see the ice differently.”

He began the season with third-line center Lars Eller, but it wasn’t long before he was being shuffled around the lineup. His growth in aggressiveness and confidence was obvious as injuries, ineffectiveness, and eventually, a blockbuster trade opened top-six spots. For a spell, he consistently skated beside Evgeni Malkin, then finished the season beside Sidney Crosby in place of the traded Jake Guentzel.

All things considered, it wasn’t a bad match, putting the 6-foot-3, hard-skating O’Connor beside Crosby. However, coach Mike Sullivan wasn’t flush with options, either.

The nightly decision was between O’Connor and a terribly vanilla version of Reilly Smith.

It wasn’t bad. O’Connor flashed his power forward potential as he barreled into corners for loose pucks and played the low-zone game with Crosby.

It wasn’t great, either. The raw data is a small bucket of ice water on the probably opening night top line. The data was enough to change my mind.

Crosby-O’Connor By the Numbers

All stats are according to NaturalStatTrick.com.

For context, we’ll give O’Connor the unfortunate comparison to Guentzel, Crosby’s long-time sidecar and consistent 30-goal scorer. It’s not fair to O’Connor but it’s also the reality the Penguins must face in the 2024-25 NHL season; they need to score more goals.

Only 13 teams scored fewer goals than the Penguins, putting them tied for 18th in the league. Considering they boasted the reigning Norris Trophy winner, Erik Karlsson, who broke the 100-point barrier in the previous year, as well as a few Hall of Famers and received an other-worldly performance from Crosby, scoring only 255 goals in a campaign was, at best, sad.

Without Guentzel to pour in the goals beside Crosby, the duty and obligations will fall on O’Connor.

Last season, in 50 games, Guentzel and Crosby boasted a 60% goals-for ratio, 57% expected goals for, and 58% of all scoring chances when they were on the ice.

The bottom line total was 42 goals for, only 28 goals against in 622 minutes of ice time.

Crosby with O’Connor was underwater in the important category: They were outscored 18-15. The duo had a 51% expected goals-for and only 50% of the scoring chances.

Considering Crosby’s play last season, that’s a big dip, and that’s just another lineup deficit facing the team that is stuck at the train station between rebuilding and winning now.

There is one more free agent on the market which could help the Penguins, but it’s July 15 and it’s a bit of a stretch.

Digging deeper into the O’Connor with Crosby line, they allowed 11 goals on high-danger chances but scored only six, while the Penguins goalies posted only an .869 save percentage with them on the ice.

The typical 5v5 save percentage for the other lines is somewhere around .910. Crosby and Guentzel were at .914. While many might hurl an insult or three at the goalies for that number, realize that also includes the furious 14-game charge at the end of the season.

President of hockey operations/GM Kyle Dubas plainly stated he viewed Kevin Hayes as a center so that Hail Mary is unlikely to occur. The other options would be breaking up the successful combination of LW Michael Bunting and Evgeni Malkin or elevating newly signed Anthony Beauvillier to the top line.

With respect to O’Connor, he very well might take a step forward this coming season. He might score more, hold onto the puck more, and force more offense.

To create an equal to Guentzel, O’Connor would need to raise his output by over 30%. Since Dubas likes numbers and analytics, he’s probably seen even more detailed breakdowns.

O’Connor, with Hayes on the third line, would elevate that unit to a firm and reliable unit.

Perhaps the Penguins’ offseason isn’t done yet.