C.J. Stroud, barring any injuries or regression in his performances, will be a very rich man in two seasons. The second-year quarterback has proven himself to be among the better quarterbacks in the league, though where he lands among his contemporaries is subject to debate. Yet, despite that debate, many agree Stroud will likely set some standards on his next contract.

Yet, how much will be determined by those around him? Right now Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence are the industry standard for a top-flight quarterback contract. Yet many out there believe Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jordan Love are likely to reset the market to some degree. Prescott is in the final season of his first contract extension, Tagovailoa is ending his rookie deal, as is Love. Meaning these three men are likely to get big paydays.

Right?

Well, if they’re all looking for the $50+ million line, no. Love has had one solid year, and anyone who thinks he’s worth top quarterback money is fooling themselves. Prescott should get a better deal this time around than he did last time and while he played well in 2023, we’ve seen enough of him to know he’s not an elite-level player. Elite-level players play that well consistently.

The only player who looks like he’ll break $50 million is Tagovailoa. Some experts believe he’ll get a contract that rivals that of Lawrence and Burrow, and if that’s the case, that should set up Stroud very nicely. Of the three (Prescott, Love, Tagovailoa), Stroud is most like the Miami Dolphins’ quarterback. They may not play the same style, but both are young, have turned around their franchises, and (for now) proven to be a reliable option.

Stroud has to reproduce the same performances from 2023 in 2024 (and 2025) and if he does, he’ll get a similar contract. Prescott, on the other hand, may not get a deal worth as much as Strouds’. He’s older and has too many injuries and down seasons to his name to warrant that elite-level money. Whatever the tier under the Borrow Boundary is where Prescott will get paid. So $40-$45 million range.

Love shouldn’t even see half of that. The best case for Love is that they agree on a $25+ million deal for one season so that he can prove he’s not a one-hit-wonder. That would give the Packers flexibility if Love isn’t the guy and Love can still obtain generational wealth while playing on a prove-it deal.

So if you want to see what Stroud can get paid, pay attention to these three men. Likely, they all get dramatically different contracts and how Stroud plays will likely determine what his deal looks like in a few seasons.