Old news but needs to be shared
Now that the entire Chicago Bears fan base can breathe about the quarterback situation, we can focus on what the plan is to become. Before I get into that, I should go over the explanation of my quarterback rankings for the Chicago Bears. I expected to get yelled at by one of my buddies when I listed Bo Nix at #1 and Caleb Williams at #3. “What do you not like about Caleb Williams?” “You literally loved Pat Mahomes coming out in the 2017 NFL draft.” First, those are my rankings for the Chicago Bears. I base my thoughts on the team’s design, situation, and film from the last year they played college football.

Granted, he called me out over my love for Justin Herbert over Joe Burrow. I accept that. I used to share my rankings along with the rankings of the current Bears GM, Coach, and situation, but at the end of the day, what I would do doesn’t matter. Now, he told me that had I gone back and watched Williams’s 2022 tape, I would have seen a player who thrived from the pocket. I believe it. He watches way more college football than I do. If we had that conversation early this year, I likely would have had Williams as the top quarterback for the Bears.

Honestly, if the Bears had hired Killf Kingsbury as the offensive coordinator, I would have had him at the top and Penix at the very bottom. Let’s not get it twisted, though; I like a lot of quarterbacks in this draft class. They all offer a fair amount of upside, and all make a strong case for being top 10 draft selections—enough of that noise. What do I mean by the Bears are going for the anomaly?

Comparing #1 draft selections
Caleb Williams will be the quarterback drafted by the Chicago Bears this season. (Thanks for the $50, Keith) I love it when a bet I made back in December pays out. David Kaplan calls it chasing greatness, and I call it the anomaly. Very few rookie quarterbacks have the type of season CJ Stroud had last year. If you don’t believe Ryan Poles is attempting that and more, I don’t know what to tell you. Caleb Williams is considered a generational talent-ish. No rookie quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl.

I don’t think that will change anytime soon. But ideally, Williams will win enough games to keep this organization from getting fired. We have seen this movie before. Maybe the third time is the charm. I should stop saying Williams and say the quarterback or, presumably, you get what I mean, right? I have a hard time thinking the Bears draft Jayden Daniels over Williams due to Daniels’s size. I guess one could assume Drake Maye… My bad. The history of the consensus #1 overall drafted quarterbacks is interesting:

Joe Burrow, when healthy, is a stud, but can he stay healthy?
Trevor Lawrence struggled because of a bad situation but overcame it. He still hasn’t gone far yet.
Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield have both been good NFL starters but did not take advantage of their rookie contracts to make a big push.
Andrew Luck never got an offensive line built for him, but he showed that generational talents are real in my era of football.
Cam Newton almost defied the logic of running quarterbacks, but Superman was human, after all.
Sam Bradford is… skip.
Matthew Stafford might best help us answer the question of what could happen next. Oh yes, he was one of my favorite #1 consensus quarterbacks drafted. Let’s talk about that connection.
In normal situations, Matthew Stafford is the type of quarterback that the Chicago Bears or any team dreams about drafting with the #1 overall selection. Stafford and Williams are very comparable draft prospects (talent-wise) when comparing two different eras. Caleb Williams and the Norte Dame game and Stafford vs Florida both left question marks. They both have mobility and arm strength, played hero football, and had questionable defenses.

Stafford 6’2, 225,33″ arms, and 10″ hands
Williams 6’1, 214, 32″arms, and 9 3/4″ hands
Had the Chicago Bears held this draft pick as their own, Ryan Poles (had he been around) would have drafted Williams. The issue would have been the surrounding talent. Stafford struggled early in the NFL due to a lack of defense and a running game. Williams, much like Justin Fields, would have, too. I mean, look what happened to Williams in 2023.

It wasn’t until 2011 (Stafford’s third season) that everybody knew he was going to become a beast. But the Lions weren’t good enough to go far. Ryan Poles built his version of the Chicago Bears this offseason and a bit of last year for this moment. To make sure that Williams doesn’t have to wait until he is 33 to get a shot. That is the ultimate goal. I said earlier this year that if Poles spends money, a rookie quarterback is coming. The best chance to create an anomaly in the NFL is a quarterback on a rookie deal.

Chicago Bears using history
The NFL is used to young quarterbacks struggling during their rookie season. However, that theme is quietly becoming a moot point. It wasn’t only CJ Stroud who has done the unthinkable. Before 2017, 12 rookie quarterbacks made the playoffs.

1983 (1): Dan Marino
1985 (2): Bernie Kosar and Diter Brock
1986 (1): Jim Everett
2004 (1): Ben Roethlisberger
2008 (2): Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan
2009 (1): Mark Sanchez
2011 (1): Andy Dalton
2012 (3): Russell Wilson, RGIII, Andrew Luck
I don’t want you to focus on the number of quarterbacks who went each year. That argument can be made for something else. Instead, look at the consistency or variance between the years. It was almost once a year from 2008 to 2012. Ryan Poles is chasing the anomaly.

If Caleb Williams, or a quarterback to be determined later, is as good as Ryan Poles believes him to be, the Chicago Bears have a shot. Brock Purdy and many other quarterbacks have shown how important that rookie contract can be. Poles and the league understand that as well. People might be sleeping on how powerful the Minnesota Vikings could become if they land the correct guy.

I can’t lie, though. Had I watched more of Caleb Williams in 2022 sooner, I might have had a different tone. Alas, I wasn’t team Williams or Fields. Nor was I against either. But I won’t get my wish of Ryan Poles trading down and taking a quarterback. There was probably only a 5% chance of that. It’s too risky for NFL GMs to gamble with. My name is Gamble, so I am all about getting risky. Until next time.