A lot still must shake out, but if the Golden State Warriors — a lock for the play-in tournament — advance to the playoffs, their best first-round matchup would be against Oklahoma City.
Despite their stellar record, the Thunder (55-25) have little postseason experience and would, therefore, be a more favorable matchup than Golden State’s other potential first-round opponents, the Minnesota Timberwolves (55-25) or reigning champion Denver Nuggets (56-24).
Golden State (45-35), currently seeded ninth, doesn’t have the size to reliably match up with Minnesota’s big-man rotation of Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid while chasing Anthony Edwards on the perimeter. (In a pregame news conference on March 24, Warriors coach Steve Kerr called Reid a “Warriors killer.”)
Although Denver doesn’t have as much imposing size as Minnesota, the Nuggets have the best lineup in basketball, featuring reigning NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokić.
Like most teams, the Warriors have trouble containing Denver’s two-man game of Jamal Murray and Jokić while trying to prevent other actions the Nuggets use off of the gravity their star duo provides. Denver has won all four games against Golden State this season.
However, the Warriors have the personnel and experience to match up with Oklahoma City, who have won three of four against Golden State this season.
Golden State’s arsenal of wing defenders — Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Klay Thompson — has playoff experience and can rotate on the Thunder’s best scorers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.4 PPG) and Jalen Williams (19.3 PPG).
Additionally, the Warriors have Draymond Green (230 pounds), Trayce Jackson-Davis (245 pounds) and even Kevon Looney (222 pounds) to wear down 7-foot-1, 207-pound rookie Chet Holmgren (16.5 PPG).
The Warriors are also a much different team from when these teams last played on Dec. 8.
For instance, Kerr has finally infused the starting lineup with more size and athleticism, slotting Jackson-Davis at center (averaging 11.6 points and 1.9 blocks as a starter). Jackson-Davis has taken nearly all the minutes from offensive liability Looney and defensive liability Dario Šarić.
Furthermore, Kuminga has become a star in his own right, averaging 18.2 points since Dec. 8.
The Warriors are surging since Kerr inserted Jackson-Davis into the starting lineup, winning eight of their past nine games, including a 100-92 win over Portland on Thursday night. Additionally, Golden State has played well recently on the road, winning 17 of its past 21.
If the Warriors advance to the playoffs, the ideal matchup would be against OKC.
