This week I’ve been pondering who I will ultimately predict as the first choice of the Los Angeles Rams in the 2024 NFL Draft and the name that felt the most “Les Snead-ish” of all was not a prospect. It was Cincinnati Bengals receiver Tee Higgins, a player I’ve had on my mind for the Rams dating back to last year and a veteran who remains on the market with less than a week until the draft.

Four years after we saw teams trade first round picks for DeForest Buckner and Stefon Diggs, two years after the NFL had teams trade firsts for A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams, is the league preparing for another blockbuster trade right before or during the draft?

Of all the general managers who could be involved in trading a first round pick for a player, Les Snead would have to be named as the most aggressive and most likely to make a phone call. But is Higgins the right player at the right time for the right price?

Tee Higgins background

Tee Higgins was the 33rd overall pick out of Clemson in 2020 and right now he’s got the fourth-most yards in his draft class behind Justin Jefferson (selected with the pick that Minnesota received from Buffalo for Diggs), CeeDee Lamb, and Brandon Aiyuk, another receiver reportedly on the trade block from the 49ers. As receiving production goes, Higgins and Aiyuk are neck-and-neck through four seasons:

Higgins: 257 catches, 3,684 yards, 24 TD in 58 games

Aiyuk: 269 catches, 3,931 yards, 25 TD in 62 games

It is widely expected that the 49ers can’t afford both Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, so one of them is probable to be traded and Aiyuk’s contract doesn’t leave dead money behind like Deebo’s.

Aiyuk is praised as a blocker more than Higgins, but Higgins is one year younger. He will be 25 during the 2024 season.

Higgins missed five games lsat season, four for a hamstring issue and one for a fractured rib. He doesn’t have a long injury history, but hamstring injuries can linger for a long time.

Though his receiving stats aren’t top-5, “all-pro” numbers and he hasn’t made a Pro Bowl, Higgins has played second fiddle to Ja’Marr Chase for the past three years so the numbers don’t necessarily represent a lack of ability to be a number one. If he went to L.A., then Higgins wouldn’t be asked to carry the load anyway, but the Rams are usually dealing with at least one significant loss at the receiver position (Cooper Kupp in 2018, Robert Woods in 2021, everyone in 2022, Kupp in 2023)…so the more receivers who can be a number one, the better.

Tee Higgins trade possible?

BengalsWire calls a Higgins trade “unlikely and possibly ill-advised”. I’m sure that before the 2022 draft, Titans writers would have said the exact same thing about A.J. Brown. Sometimes it’s not a matter of talent, but a matter of being able to afford all of your talented players at once.

The Clemson Insider noted that even though Higgins said he expects to play for the Bengals in 2024, no long-term deal means no guarantee that it will happen.

On Friday, CBS Sports pegged Higgins among players with uncertain futures who could impact the first round and be dealt to a new team on Day 1 of the draft.

“Proven players in the league are part of draft deals, usually as collateral to move up or for a high-end talent in the first found or as a way to acquire more picks,” CBS Sports’ Jeff Kerr wrote. “Remember, deadlines spur action — and there’s no closer deadline than on draft night.”

The Bengals are going to pay Ja’Marr Chase like a number one receiver and that means he’s going to get at least $30 million per season. Chase and Justin Jefferson, a receiver who doesn’t have a contract extension yet and therefore isn’t entirely ruled out from the trade market despite how shocking it would be to see the Vikings let him go, will reset the market at the position with over $30 million per season. As soon as one signs, the other will sign right away.

Right now, Higgins is on a one-year, $21.8 million franchise tag. If Cincinnati trades him, they save all that money and then in a deep receiver class, the Bengals could replace him with a rookie contract. The Bengals take the risk of trading a star receiver and drafting Treylon Burks (the Titans case after trading Brown) or getting very lucky like the Vikings did with Jefferson.

On the Rams side, they would be taking on a $21 million cap hit, but probably not for long. L.A. wouldn’t trade for Higgins without the intention to extend him and that likely brings down his cap hit by at least 50%, to around $8-$12 million. The Rams currently have $11.5 million in cap space and they’ll save a little more if they trade picks away who they don’t have to pay.

What would it take for Rams to trade for Higgins?

The Bengals pick 18th and the Rams pick 19th, but I actually do not expect the Rams to be willing to trade their first rounder for Higgins straight-up. To sacrifice a top-20 pick for a player he needs to be on that level with Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown, but I don’t believe Higgins is there. Worse yet for Cincinnati, they’re competing against teams that are shopping Aiyuk/Samuel and potentially—as a shocker—Jefferson. That makes them second or third in the pecking order for teams willing to part with a first round pick for a veteran receiver.

If the Rams really want a receiver, then just draft one at 19 or trade up for one.

However, if L.A. is able to swing a trade for Higgins that doesn’t cost a first rounder then they would be able to address the receiver position and pick a prospect at 19 or trade down for more picks. Given the devaluation of receivers this year—Keenan Allen only cost a fourth, Stefon Diggs was traded for basically the equal of a third or fourth, the free agent market was basically dead except for Calvin Ridley—the Bengals might have to accept a trade that was less than what they wanted.

The Panthers just went through something similar by trading Brian Burns for a second and a fifth. And look at Carolina’s cost to acquire Diontae Johnson: A sixth-seventh round pick swap with a player going to Pittsburgh.

Johnson is 27 and in the past four years he has 3,683 yards and 20 touchdowns, that’s only one less yard than Higgins. They’re very different types of receivers but Carolina got him for NOTHING.

The cost to trade for Higgins might actually be a second round pick, despite how ridiculous that would have sounded a few months ago.

Rams-Bengals Higgins trade offers

Bengals trade Tee Higgins, pick 49 to the Rams for pick 19

I want to play around with some possibilities. This one allows the Rams to get Tee Higgins by dropping down from 19 to 49. As annoying as that would be for Rams fans to see after waiting so many years for a first round pick, we know that Snead doesn’t care at all whether he’s pick 19th or 49th. If the Rams had a top-10 pick then yeah, don’t trade down.

But the fact is that this class is not expected to be very talent rich at pick 19, the value different in prospects from 19 to 49 would shock most people because of how slim it actually is.

However, this allows Cincinnati to save almost $22 million while being able to tell fans that they got a first round pick for Higgins. This is similar to the Hollywood Brown trade in 2022, when the Ravens traded Brown to the Cardinals by swapping pick 100 for pick 23.

As upset as fans would be by not picking 19th, the Rams would get a starting wide receiver to put next to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (when all are healthy) and then still draft prospects at picks 49 and 52 in the second round. This is a normal range of the draft for Snead to start his picks anyway and the Rams could go into next season with Higgins-Kupp-Puka as well as drafting something like a defensive tackle (T’Vondre Sweat) and a safety (Jaden Hicks) in the second round.

Bengals trade Tee Higgins for picks 52, 154

This trade essentially copies the Burns trade, sending Higgins to the Rams for second and fifth round picks. Would you rather have the first round pick but lose the second round pick or lose the first round pick but have two seconds?

That’s not an easy call, but I think I’d rather have two seconds and Higgins than have Higgins and no second. However, the upside to keeping the first is that the Rams can try to trade down from 19, although there’s no guarantee that Snead will get the return he wants.

Don’t trade for Tee Higgins

This is probably the one that will get the most support because fans like draft picks even though veterans are FAR MORE LIKELY to be good players. We know what Tee Higgins is, we don’t know if the player at pick 19 will be a star, a role player, or a cautionary tale of how bad first round picks can go wrong.

The Rams took off under Sean McVay because of their willingness to be bold with veteran receivers like Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, and Odell Beckham. The downside is that not all of those acquisitions worked out, especially not Allen Robinson, but I don’t really see any similarities between Higgins and Robinson.

Still, picking someone like Brian Thomas or Xavier Worthy or Aidonis Mitchell, maybe one of them is the next big NFL star like Jefferson. Maybe.

It’s not an easy choice for a GM. I don’t think that Snead will make an easy choice, regardless of whether that involves a trade or not.