The Detroit Red Wings, teetering on the cusp of playoff territory, may just need a few strategic tweaks to break into their first postseason appearance of the 2020s. Here, we delve into four key statistical areas that the Red Wings must address to ensure their spot in the 2024-25 NHL season.
Though the team showcased robust offensive plays last year, the Red Wings lagged in achieving their full potential score-wise. Their defense, however, encountered more critical challenges – critical enough that two of the four upcoming analytics we’re discussing underpin their past struggles.
- Corsi For (CF%) at 5-on-5
Despite their ability to find the net frequently, the Red Wings recorded a Corsi For percentage of only 46.5. Considering they managed to score 177 goals at 5-on-5—11 goals over the league average—the potential for enhancing this metric is glaring. With improvement, upgrading their Corsi For closer to or beyond 50 percent might not only escalate them from a top-10 offensive team but also possibly into the top five, easing their path to the playoffs.
- High-Danger Goals Against
Defensively, Detroit revealed significant weaknesses, primarily through allowing an excessive number of high-danger chances. The Red Wings permitted opponents 668 high-danger chances, remarkably higher than the league average of 627.
This translated into 74 high-danger goals against them at a 10 percent conversion rate – both figures exceeding league averages. To aim for a fortified defense next season, reducing these high-danger chances will be crucial, even as they seek to enhance their goaltending.
- Expected Goals For (xGF) at 5-on-5
Surprisingly, for a team skilled in scoring, Detroit’s expected goals for metric was disappointingly low at 150.6, in stark contrast to the league average of 167.7. This gap suggests that the Red Wings were not taking sufficiently advantageous shots, which stifled their scoring efficiency. By optimizing shot quality and selection, they could better harness their scoring talents and exceed their previous output.
- Actual Goals Against (aGA) at 5-on-5
Choosing between expected goals against and actual goals against, the latter paints a grimmer picture for Detroit. With the Red Wings conceding 189 goals in this context—substantially higher than the league average and their own expected goals against of 177.0—their defensive lapses are clearly apparent. Despite improvements in goaltending, similar defensive vulnerabilities this season could derail their playoff aspirations.
For the Detroit Red Wings, these statistical insights not only highlight their potential but also sketch a route to realizing it. By tightening their defense and optimizing their offensive strategies, the Red Wings can transform these numbers into a recipe for postseason success. As they continue refining these aspects of their game, the 2024-25 season could very well mark their return as formidable playoff contenders in the NHL.
