ESPN is selling CFB Playoff possibilities. In describing the 12-team format, two favorite ESPN words are “inclusion” and “interest.” Both words are accurate. There will be more teams, and fan interest is destined to reach an all-time high. In true spinmaster fashion, ESPN teases what could unfold as “historic.”
Anyone who follows college basketball knows that there are thousands of Bracket predictions every year. CFB Playoff field predictions might become more numerous than basketball Bracketology. It will be great fun. Reporters and fans must produce Playoff predictions without knowing how the CFB Playoff Selection will choose its at-large teams. A guess is the committee doesn’t yet know either, which is not to suggest they will do anything but a fine job.
Instead of debating the teams that will make the Playoff field, let’s consider a contrarian approach. Let’s talk about projected contenders that will not make the field. We’ll focus on teams that have such demanding schedules not losing three regular season games will be a major obstacle. Added to the group will be some, already overrated teams. We’ll also factor in practical limitations. The SEC and the Big Ten will likely get six of the seven at-large slots. In ESPN’s FPI rankings, only two, of the top 14 teams come from outside the B1G and the SEC.
ESPN has given a jump start on a list of CFB Playoff contenders. Using its analytics ESPN calculates 30 teams have an 11.5% chance or better to make the 12-team field. The list of Pretenders below starts with the 30 teams, plus the Liberty Flames, whose easiest schedule in college football puts them into Playoff contention (ESPN calculates Liberty’s chances at 9.6%).
CFB Playoff Pretenders – Aug. 4
- Tennessee Volunteers – ESPN gives the Vols a 36.9% chance, which is the 9th highest probability. The Vols lost considerable production from last season. Much of that lost production is on defense, from a team that was not good in pass defense last season. Adding to that weakness for the 2024 season, the Vol their top six tacklers from last season. The Vols’ HUNH will have to outscore too many opponents against a schedule ESPN ranks as the 8th toughest in the FBS. With projected losses to Alabama and Georgia, Tennessee must beat NCSU in Charlotte and Oklahoma in Norman or miss the Playoffs.
- Oklahoma Sooners – ESPN gives the Sooners a 36.6% chance; 10th best to make the Playoff field. According to ESPN, Oklahoma’s schedule is one notch tougher than Tennessee’s at 7th toughest. It appears to be much tougher. The Sooners get Texas in Dallas, Alabama, and Tennessee at home, plus road games against Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. Oddsmakers have the Oklahoma over/under at 7.5 wins. On3’s JD Pickell stated the Sooners will be lucky to win six games.
- LSU Bengal Tigers – Brian Kelly has been clear that defense cost LSU a Playoff berth last season. It could happen again in 2024. LSU gave up an average of 28 points last season; next to last among SEC teams. The Bengal Tigers were equally bad against the run and the pass. Kelly cleaned house and LSU will likely be better defensively, but matching last season’s offensive output without Jayden Daniels seems impossible. Last season Daniels was the SEC’s top passer and the league’s top rusher in yards-per-carry. Garrett Nussmeier will not come close to matching Daniels’ production. ESPN gives LSU a 25.3% chance, and the No. 23 SOS might give LSU a chance. But, a good LSU team will miss the Playoffs with three losses.
- SMU Mustangs – With a projected SOS of No. 73, SMU should have a good chance to make the Playoffs. ESPN gives them a 16.6% chance, but that is too high. Projections have SMU as the ACC’s fourth or fifth-best team and the ACC will at most get two Playoff teams.
- Southern Cal Trojans – ESPN gives the Trojans a 13.4% chance. The USC SOS is No. 27, and the Trojans could be facing four losses from LSU, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame. A fifth-place Big Ten team might come close, but finish short of a Playoff berth.
- Auburn Tigers – ESPN including Auburn in its top 30 Playoff contenders is a bad joke. Either that or the algorithm needs to be scrapped. The ESPN FPI gives the Tigers the nation’s fifth-toughest schedule. Eight wins would earn Hugh Freeze some Coach of the Year votes. ESPN gives Auburn a 13.5% chance; probably two or three times higher than it should be.
- Boise State, UTSA, and Liberty – If ESPN projections are accurate one of the three teams will make the Playoff field. If the Playoff was structured to follow its original intent of picking the best teams, none of the three would make the field. The ESPN probability for Boise State is 16.4%; UTSA is 15.6%, and Liberty is 9.6%. One will make it and in short order exit.
