We here at Canucks Army are kicking off our previews for each Vancouver Canuck player for this upcoming 2024-2025 season. In this exercise, we will set the expectations for a particular player and discuss what their season might look like if they meet, exceed, or go below expectations.
Who better to kick off this series than with the now second-year captain, Quinn Hughes?
Last year was a year to remember for the Michigan native. Not only did Hughes have the best statistical season of his career, but he also broke the franchise record of 76 points by a defenceman — a record he set in 2022-2023 after he broke his own 2021-2022 record of 68 points — with an explosive 17 goals and 75 assists for 92 points in 82 games. Hughes now holds the Canucks franchise record for most assists, points, even-strength goals, assists, points and the best plus-minus in a single season for a defenceman.
The individual accolades don’t end there. Hughes further edged his name in the history books as he claimed the first Norris trophy in Canucks franchise history. With 92 points, Hughes finished atop his fellow Norris-trophy nominees, Cale Makar by two points and Roman Josi by seven. But where Hughes blew them out of the water was plus-minus, finishing a plus-23 ahead of Makar and plus-26 better than Josi.
This just proves how head and shoulders Hughes was ahead of his competition this season and fully earned to win the honour. Hughes received 172 of the 194 first-place votes for the Norris-trophy finished, 17 second and five third-place votes. Not just the Norris, Hughes finished seventh in the Hart Memorial trophy voting for the league’s most valuable player.
Today, we are given the tough task of setting expectations for Quinn Hughes’ 2024-2025 season, the following season in which he set so many career highs. It seems farfetched to project him to have a better season. However, meeting expectations is different for Hughes now.
As the team captain, Hughes’ season success can no longer be measured solely by personal success. It’s now his job to carry and lead the team into the playoffs and chase their dream of hoisting the Stanley Cup. So, let’s examine the three scenarios in which Hughes would meet expectations, exceed expectations, or fall short of expectations for the 2024-2025 season.
Meeting Expectations: Finish as a point-per-game Defenceman, make the playoffs.
Last year was the first of Hughes’ career in which he finished as a point-per-game defenceman. While he was close in 2022-2023 (76 points in 78 games), it just seems like this is the new expectation for him moving forward. As mentioned above, Hughes is coming off a Norris trophy season. Here is how the last five Norris trophy winners performed the following year after they won the award.
Only one finished above a point per game, Cale Makar finishing with 66 points in 60 games in the 2022-2023 season. However, now the Canucks have serious playoff aspirations after making the playoffs for the first time – excluding the bubble – since the 2015 season.
Hughes flirted with a point-per-game for the last few seasons when the team was in a lottery position. Now that the team is more competitive, it’s expected that Hughes can carry on this play during the prime years of his career. Hughes also utilized his shot much more this season, which led to him more than doubling his previous career high in goals. If he continues to highlight that aspect of his game, there’s no reason he can’t finish close to 82 points.
Honestly, given the history, there will likely be a decline from his 92-point season. However, if the club can make the playoffs again and the captain can finish above a point per game, at the very least, we can consider Hughes to have met expectations.
Above Expectations: Become the Canucks’ first 100-point defenceman, reach the Western Conference finals.
These are a pipe dream, but not so outlandish when you consider what happened last season.
Hughes was just eight points shy of the century mark, and the Canucks were one goal away from advancing to the Western Conference Final.
Taking this into consideration, why would this be above expectations if Hughes and the Canucks were so close to hitting this mark?
Well, as shown above, four of the five Norris-trophy-winning defencemen actually declined in the following season. The last time a defenceman out-produced his Norris-winning season the following year was the 2015-2016 season. Erik Karlsson just won the Norris trophy in 2014-2015, when he had 66 points in 82 games. He followed that up with 82 points in the ensuing season; however, he lost the award to Drew Doughty.
The second round of the playoffs is hard enough to reach, let alone the Conference finals. Only nine teams (Florida Panthers, Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, Tampa Bay Lightning, Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights, New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, and Montreal Canadiens) have made the Conference finals over the last five years.
But could everything break right yet again for Hughes and the Canucks? Absolutely.
Look no further than the moves management made this offseason. Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford put an emphasis on bringing in offensive help (Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, Kiefer Sherwood, and Daniel Sprong) while emphasizing size and value on the back end (Vincent Desharnais and Derek Forbort).
Does this lead to higher-scoring games? If so, the century-point mark is not too far out of Hughes’ reach.
Below Expectations: Sub 65 points, finish with a negative plus-minus rating, and the Canucks miss the playoffs.
The secret’s out now on the Vancouver Canucks. The club burst onto the scene last season, and other teams will now have tape on Hughes and how the rest of the team was able to succeed last season.
Now, Hughes has impressed over the last three seasons with 68, 76 and 92 points. Seeing him regress past the point of his last three seasons would be a mega disappointment, considering his 2023-2024 campaign. Without Hughes firing on all cylinders, there’s likely going to be a lack of offensive push from the back end. Which, in turn, would only lead to a Canucks down season with the playoff potentially in question.
Further to the points above, the second round is a high feat to hit in the NHL. This is proven by how many teams make the second round one year but fail to qualify for the playoffs the following season. There have been 11 teams (Philadelphia Flyers, Vancouver Canucks, Dallas Stars, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Winnipeg Jets, Vegas Golden Knights, Calgary Flames, St. Louis Blues, New Jersey Devils, and Seattle Kraken) over the past five years to have fit that criteria.
Although it’s a small sample size, it shows a team is more likely to miss the playoffs entirely after making it to the second round than to advance past it.
Let’s cross our fingers that none of this happens, but if one leads to the other, it would certainly be a disappointing season for Hughes and the Canucks.
Goals for Quinn Hughes in 2024-25:
-Win the Norris Trophy again
-Break his own Canucks franchise season points by a defenceman record… again.
-Break the record for all-time points by a Canucks defenceman
-Lead team back to the playoffs
-Win the Stanley Cup
Not much should change for Hughes next year. If anything, the team around him has only improved. The team extended his running mate Filip Hronek to an eight-year extension and added skilled players up front, which should only help Hughes offensively. The powerplay will hopefully be back on track with the addition of DeBrusk in the bumper spot. Canucks fans are familiar with how well a left-shot sniper works in the bumper spot on the top unit, and it should lead to some extra second assists for Hughes.
Hughes needs 77 points to pass Alexander Edler for the most points by a defenceman in a Canucks uniform. If he is able to hit this number, he will hold the record at just 25 years old and have the rest of his career to extend his lead.
What do you think Canucks fans? What are your expectations for the 2024-2025 season from captain Quinn Hughes?
