As of this writing, the most surprising move of the Red Wings’ offseason is unquestionable: the trade that sent Jake Walman to San Jose.  That Walman would be traded alone was a surprise if not entirely shocking, but the fact that the deal required Detroit to attach a second round pick and receive in return “future considerations” (i.e. nothing) was confounding.  Regardless of the precise logic of the move, the practical consequence is that Moritz Seider’s most frequent companion on the Red Wings’ top pair a year ago is now a Shark.

Of course, Seider remains a restricted free agent as of this writing, but it is hardly so bold an assumption as to require justification that he will be a Red Wing in 2024-25.  So, with Walman no longer an option, who will join the German on Detroit’s top pair?  Let’s survey some candidates:

Ben Chiarot

Given that Chiarot concluding the season beside Seider with Walman ailing, he has to enter training camp as the frontrunner for the role in 2024-25.  Chiarot began his first season as a Red Wing in ’22-23 with Seider, and the pair struggled to mesh, leading to the Walman-Seider combination in the first place.  However, when they joined forces late last season, Chiarot and Seider found more success.  As a duo at five-on-five, they were marginally better than Walman-Seider by xG% (43.39-42.96) and marginally worse by actual goal share (46.25%-44.12%) (all stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick).

However, in both cases, the share of high-danger chances is concerning (37.38% for Chiarot-Seider and 39.60% for Walman-Seider).  Seider’s uniquely difficult deployment was a constant topic of conversation around Hockeytown a year ago, which is obviously a major contributor to those ugly figures.  If you constantly play against the best players and begin your shift in the defensive zone, it will be difficult to come out above water.  Still, it seems difficult to argue that the difficulty of Seider’s deployment is sustainable in the long term after it came just short of delivering the desired short-term result a year ago.

Detroit needs better results from its top pair this year, and that seems to have as much to do with deployment as performance on the ice.  Perhaps that can happen with Chiarot beside Seider, but perhaps it will require a change in personnel too.

Simon Edvinsson

If Chiarot enters camp as the favorite for this role in the eyes of the coaching staff, there can be little doubt that Edvinsson will begin the year as the fan favorite for Seider’s partner.  It’s not hard to see way, as the combination of size, skill with the puck, and skating that an Edvinsson-Seider pairing would offer makes it an impossibly tantalizing long-term possibility.

Though they’ve yet to spend significant time together, in theory, there is a natural stylistic fit between the two players.  Edvinsson could offer similar skating and puck moving to Walman, while his six-foot-six frame could add an even more formidable physicality than Walman could in the D zone.

The question with Edvinsson is whether he can earn sufficient trust from Detroit’s coaching staff to play the volume and difficulty of minutes required of Seider’s partner.  If last season is any indicator, there’s reason for optimism on that front.

Last spring, upon being called up, Edvinsson wasted no time in earning a robust role, regularly at or beyond the 20-minute mark as his team pushed desperately for a playoff spot.

“Defending well,” coach Derek Lalonde said at the time, when asked how Edvinsson showed his readiness for a serious role at a pivotal moment in the season.  “He’s managed the game very well. He’s not found himself in much trouble, but he’s also brought some physicality to his game, which is good. His size too—the long stick. Obviously, he made some plays defensively with the long stick, but he kept a couple plays offensively alive with his long stick that end up in the back of their net 20, 30 seconds later.

Veteran defender Olli Maatta pointed out to The Hockey News, “There’s a reason why he’s playing here right now and a reason why he’s playing so much.  He’s obviously doing a great job logging those minutes, and I think we all know how good of a player he is. He’s a great skater. He’s really hard to play against. He uses his body well. And he has a lot of skill too, a lot of upside offensively. He’s been great for us the last two games, and I know he’s gonna be great for us on the way in.”

If Edvinsson can continue on that trajectory, there’s no reason he can’t play with Seider on the top pair next year.  In fact, a strong season from Edvinsson (i.e. looking like a legitimate number two or three NHL defenseman already, which is not to say he couldn’t progress on to even greater heights) is the fastest path to boosting the Red Wings’ playoff prospects come springtime.

The Field

Looking at the Red Wings roster, it’s hard to identify another player realistically qualified for the volume and difficulty of minutes presumably required of Seider’s partner.  If any other than the aforementioned Chiarot or Edvinsson were, then it’s hard to see why they wouldn’t have gotten more of a look in the role a year ago.

We know that Detroit explored a trade for Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba, at least to some degree, around the time of the draft, suggesting a desire for upgrades on the blue line.  However, while he is left-handed, Trouba generally plays on the right side, so it’s unlikely Steve Yzerman sought him ought as a potential partner for Seider.

Now that we’ve reached August 1 and that deal hasn’t come to pass, the present salary cap situation round the league makes it unlikely Detroit brings in a player significant enough to play with Seider before the season begins.

A Prediction

With all that in mind, I think the likeliest scenario for the Red Wings is to begin the year with Chiarot next to Seider and end it with Edvinsson in that spot.  The timing and efficacy of that transition will likely go a long way in determining the ultimate result of this Detroit season.