The Leafs finished with a 46-26-10 record (102 points), 18 points ahead of Buffalo

The Buffalo Sabres took a step back after barely missing the playoffs in 2023, finishing seven points out of the final Eastern Conference wildcard spot with a 39-37-6 record (84 points). The regression cost head coach Don Granato his job and put more pressure on GM Kevyn Adams to snap the league’s longest playoff drought of 13 seasons.

Adams brought back veteran head coach Lindy Ruff to stress accountability and has made trades and free agent signings to remedy the Sabres depth and defensive issues, but the question now is whether they are as good or better than their competition in the Eastern Conference.

The Toronto Maple Leafs continued to be a tale of two teams. One has made the playoffs every year since 2017 and routinely registers 100-plus points in the regular season and the other who has been unable to flip the switch and have postseason success. The Leafs have lost in the first round in seven of the last eight seasons, and usually in heartbreaking fashion. Last season, the club forced a Game 7 at TD Garden in Boston but lost 2-1 in overtime on a David Pastrnak goal.

GM Brad Treliving has begun to transition the club from the speed and skill focus of former GM Kyle Dubas to a club more focused on adding size and defensive abilities. That focus was reflected in their changes over the summer, as the club signed veteran Chris Tanev and Cup-winner Oliver Ekman-Larsson to bolster the blueline, backup Anthony Stolarz to partner with starting goalie Joseph Woll, and re-signed forward Max Domi.

Forwards

The Leafs were second in the NHL with 303 goals, with three-time Rocket Richard winner Auston Matthews tallying 69 of them. Toronto is heavily dependent on their core-four group of Matthews, William Nylander (40 goals), Mitch Marner (26 goals), and John Tavares (29 goals), but veterans Domi, Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, and youngsters Matthew Knies, Pontus Holmberg, and Bobby McMann are providing better depth than they had in previous seasons.

The additions of Ryan McLeod, Jason Zucker, Beck Malenstyn, Sam Lafferty, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel give Buffalo some improved depth throughout their forward group, but the open question of who will replace Jeff Skinner’s production in the top six and last year’s decline in production from 296 to 246 goals gives Toronto a significant advantage.

Defense

Morgan Rielly bounced back from an average season to score 58 points last year, and with the additions of Tanev and Ekman-Larsson to a group that includes former Sabre Jake McCabe, Timothy Liljegren, and Simon Benoit, Toronto’s defense is significantly improved, however, Buffalo’s group of Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Bowen Byram, Henri Jokiharju, and Mattias Samuelsson provides better depth and more offensive firepower. The only question is whether Buffalo’s group under Ruff can take care of things in their own end, but overall they have an edge over the Leafs group.

Goaltending

Toronto chose to make a commitment to Woll, signing him to a three-year contract extension. The 26-year-old stole the starting job from Ilya Samsonov twice in the regular season and playoffs, only to lose it due to injury. Ability is not the issue with the Leafs netminder, it’s availability. Stolarz put up excellent stats as Sergei Bobrovsky’s backup in Toronto and may be leaned on more heavily in Toronto to split duties.

The Sabres have a slight advantage over Toronto if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen can put up the same level of performance as last season, and with Devon Levi waiting in the wings.

Outlook

There were expectations that the Leafs would trade one of their core four group coming off another disappointing early exit, but that is not likely to happen now. New head coach Craig Berube will attempt to get Toronto to evolve into a more responsible two-way group, and that question will not be truly determined until next April. The Leafs will once again be battling for a top-three spot in the Atlantic and the only thing preventing that will be an injury to Woll or a trade involving Marner, then they could fall into the bubble group that includes the Sabres, who will battle for one of the two Eastern Conference wildcard spots.