With Risk Comes Upside

If you were hoping the Washington Capitals would have an exciting summer, you’re probably thrilled with the club’s actions over the last month.

Capitals GM Brian MacLellan discusses poor start - The Washington Post

Now former General Manager Brian MacLellan has always been very transparent on what he wants to do with the team – so when he said he wanted to shake things up, he was not lying, and did just that. Within weeks, he added a couple of top-six players in Pierre Luc-Dubois and Andrew Mangiapane; a starting goalie in Logan Thompson; a couple of top-four defensemen in Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy; and a couple of bottom-six wingers in Brandon Duhaime and Taylor Raddysh. That’s about a third of the roster completely turned over, which is the definition of shaking it up.

A quote stuck out from MacLellan during all of the chaos. He said, “We’ve been trying to take risks: looking for upside in players, trying to find players that we think we can create environment where they’re more successful. That’s been our philosophy, versus let’s just tank it and go down and try and win the lottery, which is a painful approach to it. We are taking a lot of risks.”

The two key words in there are “risk” and “upside”.

That upside could potentially be pretty big, something that might be underplayed by others just based on the Caps’ performance over the last few seasons. There are many players on the roster who have a lot to play for, whether that’s a new contract, making up for a down year or a bad reputation, or the desire to prove they belong in the NHL every day. That could be a recipe for a very impactful, competitive team we can see thrive in the playoffs.

Of all the players listed here, Dubois may be the most important, because if he can live up to his upside, the Caps retool is over. He’s on his fourth team in his short career, something which has led some people to believe he’s hard to work with, lazy and selfish. Maybe he is (though teammate Matt Roy would disagree), but there could be a lot of reasons why he didn’t work out in Columbus, Winnipeg or Los Angeles. He will, hopefully, have a lot to play for to prove everyone wrong about him. He just turned 26, the runway is long for him – he just needs to finally put his effort issues to rest and become a true first-line center.

Right behind Dubois is Mangiapane, another player coming to DC after a lackluster 2023-24 season. He went from a 35-goal season two years ago to a career-low of 14 goals last season. He’s since revealed that last year was rough due to a shoulder injury that kept bothering him, and a summer of healing his shoulder should hopefully get him to a better place – maybe not 35 goals, but somewhere in the 25-goal, 50-point range should be within reach for the tenacious winger who has a new contract to play for.

The addition of Dubois and Mangiapane helps fill out a top-six forward group that struggled offensively last season, and takes some of the pressure off of someone like Tom Wilson. Wilson is coming off a down year himself, posting just 35 points in 74 games last season after averaging 54 a season over the previous five seasons. Part of that could be because Wilson is not a player who drives a line offensively – he is a top-tier power forward who can support and make room for those with more skill. The new forwards (plus hopefully a desire to bounce back from an off year) should get Wilson back to his regular level of production.

Then there’s the boost to the blueline the Caps potentially get with Chychrun and Roy, and while Roy is probably a known commodity, the risk here lies with Chychrun. Chychrun is a 26-year-old defenseman who averaged a point-per-game rate of nearly 52 over the last three seasons before a slightly down year in Ottawa last year where he hit just 41 points in 82 games (a total which, for what it’s worth, would still have been second-most among Caps defensemen).

He played a lot of right side (his off hand) in Ottawa because they already had Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot on their left side. Like Dubois with the Kings, it was just a poor fit with the Senators. With the Caps he’ll be playing on his correct hand and be given some big minutes, potentially even seeing time alongside John Carlson. He certainly has the ability to be a consistent 50+ point defensemen, maybe even 60+ points, so this season will be huge for his future contract since he’ll be a free agent next summer.

Like the forwards, Chychrun’s worth and potential upside is his individual skillset as well as his ability to take the load off other players on the team – in this case, Rasmus Sandin, whose 2023-24 season (like Wilson’s) probably wasn’t as good as he hoped. Both his offense (just 23 points in 68 games) and his possession stats (-1.77xGF%Rel) took a hit last year, neither of which was helped by missing 14 games due to injury to end the season (and another three in the playoffs).

With the addition of more talent, Sandin could really thrive. The Caps are now incredibly strong on the blue line, which will allow better matchups and even out the playing time among all players. He’ll be another one looking to bounce back, as well, and he could have a really strong offensive season.

Charlie Lindgren makes 35 saves as Capitals blank Golden Knights 3-0 -  Knights On Ice

Both goaltenders, Thompson and Charlie Lindgren, are free agents this summer. Having both goalies looking for a new contract could create a great battle every night in the crease that should get both playing at the top of their game, not wanting to lose that number one spot (and the potential payday that comes with it). Thompson also asked for a trade out of Vegas to try for a starting gig elsewhere, so he’ll be very determined. If both goalies are playing at the top of their game each night, it will give the Caps a better chance of winning.

So much of the responsibility for bringing out the potential upside in this newly retooled roster lies in the very capable hands of head coach Spencer Carbery. Carbery had a very good rookie season behind the bench for the Caps, taking a team that absolutely should not have made the playoffs to the postseason. Expectations are high for what he can do in his sophomore campaign, with a year of NHL experience under his belt and a much younger, quicker, more offensively potent team at his disposal. If the new players can play to their potential and blend with the guys already on the roster, mixed with Carbery’s coaching skills, the Caps are going to be a deadly team.

Still, while there is huge upside with this team, there is also – as MacLellan noted – plenty of risk being taken on by the team, with the potential for failure on many levels. Maybe Dubois doesn’t change from his Kings season, or Chychrun from the Senators season, or Mangiapane from the Calgary season. Maybe Wilson and Sandin don’t bounce back. Maybe neither goalie really steps up to grab the number one spot. Maybe Carbery can’t improve upon his rookie season. That’s all possible, and if it happens, this team could be worse than last season.

It’s unlikely (though not impossible) that all of those things go wrong, though – and there is a ton of potential for things to go the other way. There may not be another NHL team in the league with so many pieces who have this much motivation to be at the top of their game, and if it all hits right, the Caps could be a top team; if even some of it works out, they should hopefully be much improved over last season.

What these moves have done is give the Caps potential that they simply didn’t have last season, a chance to be competitive again…and that should make this season an exciting one to watch.

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