The fantasy football community seems to believe New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave is ready for the fabled Year 3 breakout. Fresh off the heels of a WR16 finish, FantasyPros Average Draft Position currently has him going off the board as the WR12 with the 17th-overall pick. The fantasy community is betting that Olave can reach his ceiling in 2024, but do the underlying metrics and the Saints themselves support this assumption?
2024 Fantasy Football Outlook: Chris Olave
2023 Recap
Chris Olave entered the 2023 season with sky-high expectations. After a 1,000-yard rookie season, most believed he could be a top-12 wide receiver with Derek Carr leading the offense. While he fell short of that goal, the Ohio State product still had an impressive campaign, finishing the season with 87 receptions for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns on 138 targets. This was good enough for a WR16 finish in PPR scoring, and the advanced metrics suggest his production reflected his on-field abilities.
According to Pro Football Focus, Olave’s 82..5 overall grade ranked 16th out of 128 eligible players. From a production standpoint, Olave’s 25.2% target share and 38.2% air yard share ranked 17th and 12th among receivers, respectively, while his 2.08 yards per route run ranked 21st. While he improved in the second half of the year with 16.2 points per game, full-season splits tend to be more predictive of future production. This is all one long way of saying that Chris Olave earned his WR16 fantasy football finish last year. So, can we realistically expect a jump in Year 3?
2024 Projection
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Targets are earned in the NFL, and vacated targets will never turn a 15% target share player into a 25% target share. However, vacated targets can lead to some variance, which could benefit Chris Olave in fantasy football. After staying reasonably healthy in 2023, the Saints parted ways with Michael Thomas during the offseason. While the two-time All-Pro is still a free agent, New Orleans has not expressed any interest in bringing him back. This means that has 64 targets must go somewhere, and Olave should inherit some of that work.
The only two receivers of note on the Saints roster are Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Both players are talented, but Olave is more of a do-everything threat while Shaheed is at his best stretching the field vertically. Thomas did most of his damage near the line of scrimmage, which makes Olave a natural fit for this extended role. Nobody is saying Chris Olave will receive all 64 of those vacated targets, but he might see an extra one or two looks per game with Thomas out of the picture.
Additionally, the New Orleans Saints offensive line is a disaster. Ryan Ramczyk will miss the season, leaving Trevor Penning and first-round pick Taliese Fuaga to start at both tackle positions. When combined with their disastrous guard situation, quarterback Derek Carr probably won’t have much time in the pocket. This will likely mean a higher share of targets for Chris Olave than Shaheed, which once again bodes well for his fantasy football outlook. While he probably won’t finish as a top-five receiver, he has a good chance of justifying his current WR12 price tag.
