With the dog days of the off-season upon us, we at CanucksArmy are starting a thought exercise series looking at two scenarios and trying to decide which is more likely to occur next season.
We’ll lay the scenarios out, offer an explanation of our thoughts, and then leave the comments section wide open for discussion and debate. It’s quite possible neither scenario is actually achieved. We know that both of these scenarios can’t come to pass. We don’t have a crystal ball so we’re looking at probabilities here. In the intial edition of the series, we are asking which is more likely – Thatcher Demko starting 60 games or Arturs Silovs starting 30?
Thatcher Demko
When healthy and at the top of his game, Thatcher Demko has shown he is an elite National Hockey League goaltender and a true difference maker for the Vancouver Canucks. But health has become an issue for the 28-year-old San Diego, CA native in each of the past three seasons.
There is no doubt the Canucks will need Demko to shoulder the bulk of the workload next season, but the hockey club needs to be careful with his deployment. While regular season success is important and the hockey club certainly expects to be a playoff team again, the priority for the Canucks is to ensure Demko is healthy and ready when the post-season rolls around. However, as we’ve seen with three head coaches now, there is a tendency to ride their workhorse.
If the Canucks find themselves battling down the stretch for top spot in the division or for home ice advantage in the opening round, it would hardly be a surprise to see Rick Tocchet turn to his number one guy in goal and ask him to shoulder the load. But will the club be able to demonstrate big picture thinking with Demko’s workload next season? Demko started 61 games two seasons ago and last season finished with 51 starts — but only because he was injured on March 9th. Had he remained healthy he was certainly trending toward another 60+ start season.
Arturs Silovs
In Arturs Silovs, the Canucks have a young goalie that has proven he’s ready for full-time NHL employment. The 23-year-old was thrown into the pressure cooker of Stanley Cup Playoff action and backstopped the Canucks to an opening round victory over Nashville and to Game 7 against Edmonton.
With new contract in hand, he appears poised to be Demko’s back-up next season. The question is how much of an NHL workload can he handle? And how much work should be thrown his way by a team that wants to build on the success it enjoyed last season?
This is a goalie that is in the rare situation of having started more playoff games (10) than regular season games (9) in the NHL. In other words, his body of work remains relatively small at the game’s highest level. Silovs is also waiver exempt, which means he could be farmed to Abbotsford at times if the big league team knows it’s in the midst of a run of Demko starts and wants the backup to see game action in the AHL in order to stay sharp. Will that impact his usage in any way at the NHL level?
What’s more likely?
In an ideal work share, Thatcher Demko would be limited to 55 starts and Arturs Silovs would get the other 27. But would it surprise anyone to see Demko used heavily early on in an effort to have the Canucks get off to a quick start like last season? If that’s the case, will the Canucks be able to find enough games for Silovs to reach 27 starts? Then again, if Demko is leaned on early, will he be able to withstand the heavy workload? Silovs has shown well for Rick Tocchet in both seasons he’s been tested by NHL shooters. That trust should be rewarded with a 5:2 ratio of Demko to Silovs starts in the early going. Given Demko’s injury history, it seems improbable that the Canucks would tempt fate and overplay their ace this season. That said, injuries are unpredictable and could very well occur. That’s why it seems more likely that Silovs finds himself making 30 (or more starts) rather than Demko seeing anywhere close to 60 regular season starts next season.
