The Chicago Bears went a long way in trying to improve their offense ahead of this coming season.
The first-pick drafting of USC star quarterback and blue chip prospect Caleb Williams is expected to have a potential franchise-altering impact in Chicago. The addition of veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen via trade with the Los Angeles Chargers and Washington standout wide receiver Rome Odunze via their other first-round pick (no. 9 overall) will add elite-level talent to their pass-catching corps.
Chicago Bear Doubts at Running Back
Among some analysts, though, there is legit doubt when it comes to the running back position. Despite the free agent signing of D’Andre Swift, some are expressing their concern over the strength of Chicago’s running game.
ESPN staff writer Bill Barnwell wrote about this in a recent piece for ESPN.
“I’m a little concerned about running back,” Barnwell wrote. “Free agent signing D’Andre Swift is coming off a big year in Philadelphia, but I’d poke a couple of holes in his performance. After struggling for consistency in Detroit, he started the 2023 season by posting a 63.2% success rate through the first four weeks. He fell off to 38.8% the rest of the way.
“The NFL Next Gen Stats model thought his production was mostly a product of Philly’s blocking, with Swift generating minus-65 rush yards over expectation on 229 rush attempts. The average back with his blocking would have generated 4.9 rushing yards per attempt, the second most generous expectation in the league for a back with at least 100 carries. Roschon Johnson posted minus-61 rush yards over expectation as a rookie, while the Bears don’t seem convinced Khalil Herbert can be the featured back.”
This is some sobering insight. And, when it comes to Swift, it’s hardly the first time an expert sounded a “he might not be that good” alarm when it comes to the veteran running back.
Is D’Andre Swift Overrated?
Matt Johnson of Sportsnaut.com, for instance, wrote of Swift being one of the NFL’s most overrated players back in early May.
Per Johnson:
“D’Andre Swift received his first Pro Bowl selection in 2023, racking up the fifth-most rushing yards (1,049) and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He turned it into a three-year, $24.5 million contract with the Bears. However, we view Swift as one of the most overrated NFL players in 2024 because a lot of his success seems to be a product of the Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive line.
Swift ranked 17th in breakaway run rate (4.8 percent), 25th in juke rate (19 percent), 21st in true yards per carry (4.4) last season, per Player Profiler and he ranked 36th in PFF’s Elusive Rating (47.5). Considering what happened to Miles Sanders’ efficiency after leaving Philadelphia (4.9 ypc to 3.3 ypc), no one should be surprised if Swift experiences significant statistical regression in Chicago this fall.”
The 25-year-old Swift, who’s played for the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles coming into this fifth year of his professional career, often seems to find himself on “overrated” lists. It could be that his efficiency as a pass-catcher pushes his running skills into an almost secondary position.
However, his talent for being an adept pass-catcher is probably what drew the Caleb Williams-having Bears to Swift in the first place.
Time will tell how well Swift and the Bears running back corp perform in the Williams era. If the team is to succeed, they’ll need a sound running game to compliment their improved pass-catching ability.
Whatever the case, 2024 should be interesting.
