It has been one of the more active and newsworthy offseasons for the Tampa Bay Lightning in recent memory. The team decided to part ways with longtime captain Steven Stamkos and talented two-way defenseman Mikhail Sergachev while adding Jake Guentzel via free agency and Ryan McDonaugh via a trade with the Nashville Predators. Tanner Jeannot, Tyler Motte, Calvin de Haan, and rentals are also gone, as are Matt Dumba and Anthony Duclair. At the same time, Cam Atkinson, Zemgus Girgensons, and Jesse Ylonen have been added to the roster.
The Lightning felt that these moves, however unpopular they may be with the fanbase, were needed to make the Lightning a tougher team to play against in 5-on-5 situations. In 5-on-5 play, they were 25th in the NHL in scoring differential per 60 minutes. They were outscored 190-172, which is not what you expect from a team that one would hope could make a deep run in the playoffs.
While the revamped Lightning prepare for the upcoming season, three major questions remain for the team heading into 2024-25.
Does the Lightning Have a Reliable Backup in Net?
There is little doubt that Andrei Vasilevskiy had the worst statistical season of his career last season. Much of this could have been contributed to surgery to repair a herniated lumbar disc in his back last September, pushing his season debut until the end of November. After returning, Vasilevskiy posted multiple career lows at 5-on-5 than previous seasons. His .904 save percentage (SV%) ranked last in his ten-year tenure in the NHL, and it was the first time he had a SV% below .920 at 5-on-5. Hopefully, a fully healthy Vasilevskiy can return to form, but he and the team will need some help on the nights he needs rest.
In this offseason, the Lightning decided not to bring in an inexpensive veteran backup and appears willing to let Jonas Johansson take on that role for the upcoming season. The 28-year-old appeared in a career-high 26 games with the Lightning last season, posting a 12-7-5 record, two shutouts, and a .890 SV%. However, this is a slight dropoff from when he was the starter in Vasilevskiy’s absence and was named the NHL’s second star for the last week in October 2024, when he went 4-1-2 through his first seven total games, compiling a 2.56 goals-against average (GAA) and .925 SV%. It is difficult to post those numbers when playing sparingly, but the Lightning need something close to that production when their star goaltender is given the night off.
Will Jake Guentzel Improve Their 5-on-5 performance?
The major factor in deciding to let Stamkos leave was his statistical decline in those types of situations. According to the analytical site Evolving Hockey, he had a plus-0.45 in expected goals four years ago. However, three years ago, it was plus-0.30. Two years ago, it dropped to plus-0.04. Last season, it significantly dropped to minus-0.33. Of the 40 goals Stamkos scored, 19 were on the power play. This became why he was allowed to walk, and Guentzel was signed to a large contract.
In adding Guentzel, the Lightning not only signed a player five years younger than Stamkos but also got a player with solid numbers at 5-on-5. Four years ago, Guentzel was a minus-0.11 in expected goals. That improved to plus-0.46 and plus-0.43 the next two seasons before exploding to a plus-1.01 last season. The Lightning need that trend to continue if they want to be better at 5-on-5 and have a team that can make a deep playoff run in 2024-25.
When Will Conor Geekie be Ready for the NHL?
In addition to freeing up cap space, the Lightning also received top prospect Conor Geekie in the trade that sent Sergachev to the Utah Hockey Club. The 20-year-old was drafted 11th overall by the Arizona Coyotes in the 2022 Draft. The center picked up 43 goals and 56 assists in 55 games last season, split between the Wenatchee Wild and Swift Current Broncos of the Western Hockey League. He made his professional debut with the American Hockey League’s Tucson Roadrunners and skated in two Calder Cup Playoff contests.
Scouts had also deemed Geekie as a project due to his skating deficiencies. Before the 2022 Draft, they noted that his stride is clunky as he doesn’t bend his knees enough, and he lacks the power you’d expect from someone with his physical tools. The good news here is that the Lightning have an excellent track record of improving the skating skills of their prospects, so the question remains on how long it will take to get Geekie’s skills to the level needed to play in the NHL.
General manager Julien BriseBois did not do a complete teardown but recognized that the Lightning were trending in the wrong direction. It was painful and somewhat risky, and it left us with some questions that will be addressed as the 2024-25 season unfolds.
