The Cubs win 8-2 to take the series from the Twins.

I mean no disrespect to the Twins, but when I was looking into them ahead of this series, I saw a team that has feasted on bad teams with an unusual fervor. On the one hand, all you can do is beat the team in the other dugout. This isn’t college football and you aren’t lining up cupcakes to boost your record. On the other, they aren’t super tested against good teams and to the extent that they are, they’ve been a fair bit below .500.

I don’t say any of that to say the Twins are a bad team. They are certainly a good team. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t be able to capitalize on those matchups and pile up elite numbers as a team. I just observe that they are probably a bit worse than a quick scan of the standings would suggest. Notwithstanding the stifling start on Monday by the Twins starter, the Cubs looked head and shoulders the better team in this series.

After the Cardinals series, I rated the Cubs performance in that series at an A. It’s tough to dominate any team for four straight games. So two strong wins, a close win and a close loss was a pretty strong performance. In this one, I’m giving the Cubs a B+. How good are the Twins? Not clear. But good enough that two wins in convincing fashion is a good outcome. Being fair, an injury derailed things for the Twins in this one. An unintentional bullpen game occurred. But, I give the Cubs credit for pouncing on a tough break for the Twins. How many times have we seen them totally fail to capitalize in a spot like that?

Looking at a fairly large sample this Cubs team has now won 18 of 30. That’s a 97-win pace. You’ll probably recall that for the first 30 games they were also 18 of 30. In both instances, I could chop things up and find stretched where they are even better. But those are two fairly large baskets of games with a mix of home and away games, good teams and bad. In those two large chunks, this team is a fairly safe playoff team. Actually, that team would be well in front of the Brewers.

Clearly, you can’t just excise the 57 games between that. 21-36 is quite a hole in the middle. That’s a 60-win pace. That team would be just a hair ahead of the Rockies for the worst record in the NL.

That’s a pretty striking difference. Here is the uncomfortable reality of this team. First, the front office properly deserves blame for putting together a team that didn’t have a lot of proven relievers. The bullpen blew up and cost this team a ton of wins. But also, you have to give a fair amount of the front office for remaking the team on the fly. Tyson Miller was one of the first in-season acquisitions for this team and has been a big part of stabilizing the bullpen. That was a terrific move early in the season at a time when they really needed. Jorge López was added later and has also been excellent. Christian Bethancourt is a cherry on top, getting the team some production out of the catcher spot.

The Cubs still have that weak schedule down the stretch. They are going to have to mimic these Twins and attack those games like a series of elimination games. This team can’t just win series, they need to dominate them. They have to make up five games in the standings over the last 45 games and in the process, they need to pass at least five teams in the standings. We’re not going to look at that for a while, because it ends up being quite a buzzkill.

Baseball does not have any specific marked advantage for finishing near the bottom of the standings. So there is no reason not to make a run at it. The odds are significantly stacked against them. But the odds aren’t zero. You don’t do things like playing guys hurt or past a normal fatigue point. But you go all out and try to get there.

Let’s find three stars in what was a very strong performance for this team.

The Cubs had eight hits and drew five walks. Among those hits were two doubles and two homers. They also stole four bases. Some good sequencing let that add up to eight runs. The first star goes to Michael Busch who got things started with a solo homer in the first. He added a single and a walk later. He scored a couple of runs.

Ian Happ slugged a two-run homer in the fourth to get the Cubs a comfortable lead. That boosted a two-run lead to four. He also had another hit besides and scored twice. Busch and Happ batted first and second. It helps to have that kind of production right at the top of the lineup.

Christian Bethancourt had a pair of hits, both doubles. He also had a walk and scored in the wild third inning that was decisive in this game. He drove in one run. Christian has played in only five games as a Cub but he has put up a .429/.500/.857 line. After producing a .466 OPS for the Marlins, they have to be wondering what happened.

Game 117, August 7: Cubs 8, Twins 2 (57-60)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Michael Busch (.202). 2-3, HR, BB, RBI, 2 R
• Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.095). 0-3. BB, RBI
• Sidekick: Christian Bethancourt (.090). 2-3, 2 2B, BB, RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.061). 1-4, RBI, R
• Goat: Mike Tauchman (-.020). 1-3, BB, R
• Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.012). 0-3, BB

WPA Play of the Game: Matt Wallner batted with a runner on first and two outs in the first. He doubled and drove in the game’s first run.

*Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki drew a one-out walk with the bases loaded in the third inning, tying the game. (.107)

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Seiya Suzuki +19.5
• Shōta Imanaga +17.5
• Jameson Taillon +12
• Ben Brown/Mark Leiter Jr./Michael Busch +11
• Miles Mastrobuoni -9
• Adbert Alzolay -10
• Kyle Hendricks -11
• Miguel Amaya -12
• Christopher Morel -20.5

*Busch back into the top 5, Suzuki back into the lead, Happ up to +4. Swanson down to -4, Tauchman down to +3.5, Hoerner down to +0.5.

Up Next: An off day Thursday before the Cubs take the long trip to the other side of town to play the White Sox. This is an unprecedented opportunity. Two games against an unbelievably bad team bracketed by two days off. 11 consecutive nights in their own beds and a chance to pile up nine wins. It feels like a misprint to type that the White Sox are 28-89.

Jameson Taillon (7-6, 3.25) starts the opener for the Cubs. The Cubs do get a tough draw, facing Garrett Crochet (6-8, 3.19). Garrett made only four starts in July and this is his second in August. He hasn’t thrown past four innings since June 30. Time to take care of business.

**Special note. I will be on vacation, returning August 19. I will miss the White Sox series and the following one against Cleveland. I will return for the finale of the Blue Jays series. With that in mind, I’ll point out that the Cubs are now 19-10 against the AL. So eight more against AL teams sounds perfect. Al will run a bare-bones version of Heroes and Goats while I am away, with just the numbers and chart.