We wrap up the reviews of the defense with Erik Cernak. As usual with Drago, there wasn’t much offense on either side when he was on the ice. It took awhile for the 27-year-old to find a partner, but once the pairings were locked down he looked like his old self.

The Basics

Name: Erik Cernak

Position: Defense

Counting Stats: 69 Games, 2 Goals, 11 Assists, 19:11 TOI

Extra Stats (5v5): 47.33 CF%, 45.37 SF%, 47.83 GF%, 46.02 xGF%, 50.38 HDCF%, .910 On-ice Save Percentage, 1.38 iXG

2023-24 Contract: First year of an 8-year contract with an AAV of $5.2 million

Contract Status: He will be entering the second year of his 8-year deal that is worth $41.60 million

The Charts

The Review

With the better part of six seasons now under his belt, there are certain things that are almost certain to happen in an Erik Cernak season. He’s going to hit some folks (over 160 in five of his six seasons), he’s not going to score a lot of goals (he’s had 1, 2, 2 over the last three seasons), and he’s going to miss at least 10 games a season due to various injuries (70 games played in 2023-24 is his career-high). He is also going to be pretty solid in his zone and provide above-average defense.

That’s it. That’s Erik Cernak. There is no need to expect anything more or less over the course of a season. That can be pretty reassuring to a coach. When the big defenseman is healthy, Coach Cooper can just slot him onto the second pairing and figure out the rest of his line-up from there.

Last season was a bounce back statistically for Cernak, who had one of his weaker seasons in 2022-23, his first without Ryan McDonagh as his usual partner. Evolving Hockey had him back in the 69th percentile in 2023-24 after finishing in the 24th percentile in 2022-23. Breaking down his microstats with All Three Zones shows that in his own zone, Cernak was a lot more involved last season. He was playing the puck a lot more and was way more successful in exiting the zone.

Perhaps Cernak tried to do a little too much in 2022-23 as he tried to adjust to a role on the top pairing with Victor Hedman. That pairing started last season as well and struggled a bit. He posted his highest XGA/60 with Heddy (4.41) as well as the highest HDCA/60 (17.49). The duo’s skillsets don’t jibe very well especially if Hedman was caught down low in the offensive zone. Cernak is a lot of things, but a back-checking speed demon isn’t one of them.

Some of the same problems lingered when he was paired with Mikhail Sergachev and they struggled to prevent high-danger chances and quality chances. Cernak’s best partner according to the expanded stats was probably Haydn Fleury as the duo posted a 2.74 XGA/60 and 11.36 HDCA/60 in 190 minutes. The constant injuries on the left side seemed to affect him the most as he was paired up with Sergachev, Fleury, and Calvin de Haan for large amounts of the season.

The summer started off with rumors that Cernak was on the trading block, especially considering his no-trade clause kicked in on July 1st, but the team went in another direction by trading Sergachev. Cernak now becomes a key part of the defense on the right side. With Darren Raddysh likely partnering with Hedman on the top line, Cernak is penciled in on the second pairing.

It’s safe to assume that Coach Cooper is going to reunite him with McDonagh to start the season as the duo was the team’s shutdown pairing during their cap runs. They play off of each other pretty well and while neither will really generate any offense, they will make sure the other team won’t either.

Having a steady partner at his side could propel Cernak back into the gaudy defensive numbers we saw from 2020 to 2022.